The first primaries of the 2026 midterm campaign are complete. Early results from Texas and North Carolina could shape control of Congress. Not every result is final, but here are five key takeaways.
1. Texas Republicans head for a runoff in the Senate primary. Will Trump get involved?
A three-way Republican Senate contest in Texas — Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt — left no candidate with more than 50%, forcing a runoff on May 26. The primary has already been the most expensive Senate primary in history on the GOP side; another large sum may be spent during the runoff. The matchup between Cornyn and Paxton represents a clash between the party’s traditional leadership and a newer MAGA-aligned wing. President Trump did not endorse before the primary, saying he liked all three candidates; whether he intervenes in the runoff or conserves resources for other races remains an open question.
2. Will Democrats finally win in Texas?
Texas has long been a target for Democrats but has not elected a statewide Democrat since 1994. On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Talarico’s backers argue his approach could better appeal to moderates in a general election, while Crockett’s campaign emphasized turning out new and energized voters. Both were broadly progressive; the contest centered on strategy and style rather than stark policy differences. For Democrats to win statewide, they’ll need unity, high turnout and coordinated strategy.
3. The North Carolina Senate match-up is set.
In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper won the Democratic nomination for an open Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. The Republican nominee is Michael Whatley, a former state GOP chairman aligned with Trump. Cooper’s appeal rests on his record winning statewide in a right-leaning state and his pitch on affordability and independence — promising to work with Trump when it helps North Carolinians and push back when necessary. Cooper will attempt a delicate balancing act to flip a seat in a state Trump has carried.
4. More signs of trouble for incumbents
Incumbency usually offers strong reelection advantages, but Tuesday’s results showed vulnerabilities. Cornyn was pushed into a runoff after getting about 42% of the vote. Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost by double digits. Rep. Tony Gonzales, facing scandals, was headed to a runoff in a tight race against a gun-rights influencer. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee was in a nail-biter. Longtime Rep. Al Green is nearly tied in a newly drawn Texas district against a recently seated challenger. These upsets and close races reflect growing public skepticism about politics and institutions and suggest incumbents may face tougher fights in 2026.
5. Voting problems surfaced on the first primary day
Election officials prepared for possible interference and heightened scrutiny, but the practical issue that emerged in Dallas County was confusion over polling locations. County GOP officials changed to precinct-based voting rather than countywide polling sites, and hundreds of voters showed up at the wrong places. A county judge ordered polls kept open two hours longer, and the state Supreme Court required that ballots cast after the original closing time be held separately. Jasmine Crockett’s campaign alleged disenfranchisement in Dallas. Despite these problems, major outlets had enough returns overnight to project the Democratic nominee. Still, access and clarity at the polls remain a significant concern, especially in tight races and amid persistent rhetoric questioning election integrity.
