The outlines of the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas have come into clearer view after James Talarico, a seminarian and state lawmaker, defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic nomination, according to an Associated Press race call.
“Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope,” Talarico told supporters in Austin before the race was officially called. “And a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”
For now, Talarico will have to wait to see who his opponent will be this November. The Republican primary is headed to a runoff between Sen. John Cornyn, the incumbent, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Neither crossed the more than 50% threshold needed to win outright on Tuesday, setting a runoff for May 26.
With more than 80% of results in, Cornyn had 42.1% of the vote, Paxton 40.9% and Congressman Wesley Hunt 13.2%, according to the AP.
The Texas Senate race is one of the most closely watched contests this year, as Democrats sense an opportunity to win a statewide race in Texas for the first time in more than three decades. Both primaries were viewed as tests of the parties’ directions ahead of the midterms that will determine control of Congress.
On the GOP side, much of the campaign featured Paxton, Cornyn and Hunt presenting themselves as the most pro-Trump option. After qualifying for the runoff, Cornyn told supporters President Trump’s agenda “hangs in the balance.”
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we have worked so hard to build over these many years,” Cornyn said. “There is simply too much at stake in this midterm election for our state and for our country.”
Cornyn is seeking a fifth term in the Senate. If re-elected and he serves a full six-year term, he would become the longest-serving senator in Texas history, surpassing Democrat Morris Sheppard. Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said Cornyn’s longevity is both an asset and a liability: it makes him emblematic of the institution but can seem anachronistic as the party shifts.
Over the past 11 months most polls showed Paxton either leading or statistically tied with Cornyn. Paxton, who was once the target of impeachment proceedings and was acquitted, said the Texas contest will remain closely watched and accused Cornyn of collaborating with Democrats on issues like gun control. “For too long he sold us out to Democrats,” Paxton said. “Those days are coming to an end.”
Political consultant Bill Miller said Paxton is well positioned to win a runoff because the electorate will be more ideologically driven: “The runoff will be the hardcore primary voters, and that’s his base, so he’ll be extraordinarily difficult to defeat in a runoff.”
If Cornyn were to lose the runoff, the lack of an incumbent would present Democrats with a unique opening; Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to reclaim a majority.
Talarico, 36, is an eighth-generation Texan, a former San Antonio middle school teacher and a recent Master of Divinity graduate from Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary. He first won election to the Texas House in 2018, flipping a district that Donald Trump had carried two years earlier. During the first 2025 legislative special session he helped lead a Democratic walkout to protest Republican-led congressional redistricting and declared his Senate candidacy soon after the session ended in September.
Crockett launched her Senate bid after Republicans in Texas redrew congressional lines at Trump’s urging last year; she was among several Democrats effectively drawn out of their districts. Crockett drew national attention in Congress for her willingness to spar verbally with Republican colleagues. Her entry into the race reshaped a contest Talarico had already entered.
At first the contest between Talarico and Crockett was cordial, but as Election Day neared and more money and attention poured in, the race grew heated despite agreement on most policies. The two differed on strategy: Talarico emphasized appealing to moderates, disenchanted Republicans and voters Democrats don’t often reach, often invoking his faith; Crockett argued for energizing turnout among Democrats.
Results in the Democratic primary were slowed by confusion in Dallas County, Crockett’s home county, where hundreds of voters were reportedly turned away after arriving at the wrong polling sites. Dallas GOP officials required voters to cast ballots at their specific precinct rather than at countywide polling locations commonly used during early voting. A county judge ordered polls to stay open two hours later, delaying results in an already tight race.
The Texas primary has become the most expensive Senate primary contest in state history. As of mid-February, tracking group AdImpact Politics reported combined spending in the Republican and Democratic races at nearly $99 million, second in U.S. history only to the 2022 Arizona Senate primary; Cornyn’s ads accounted for nearly $59 million of that total. Spending has continued to rise, with attack ads from candidates and super PACs proliferating.
The outcome could also offer insight into whether Republicans are retaining gains with Latino voters, a growing and increasingly influential bloc in Texas. Polling has suggested Latino voters in the state and nationwide are beginning to pull back from the Republican Party over concerns about the economy and immigration enforcement, a trend Democrats hope to capitalize on this cycle.