BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Early spring means the return of warm weather and … taxes. At a recent picnic in Birmingham’s Railroad Park, Dan and Glynna Courter and their friends compared tax refunds and mostly shrugged. The Courters received about $10,000 combined, but Glynna said it didn’t feel much different from last year; the couple withholds the maximum from paychecks to avoid owing, which produces larger refunds.
That muted reaction contrasts with the White House’s declaration that this would be the “largest tax refund season in U.S. history,” a claim tied to the Republicans’ signature 2025 tax and spending law. The administration projected the average refund would “rise by $1,000 or more this year.” So far, however, the bump has been far smaller.
By early April the IRS reported the average tax refund at $3,462, about $350 higher than last year and 11.1% above the same point in 2025. That increase falls well short of the $1,000 boost touted by proponents of the tax changes.
Many Americans also say the changes haven’t helped them. A Bipartisan Policy Center survey found 62% of respondents thought the changes either hurt them or made no difference; only 35% of Republicans said the changes favored them. “There’s a bit of a disappointment in how much those refunds are,” said Tom O’Saben, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals. “People are quietly, perhaps, happy but not to the extent where I would call it significant.”
Part of the reason the headline refund number looks modest is that some of the law’s benefits may be flowing more to taxpayers who would otherwise owe rather than to those receiving refunds. IRS refund data doesn’t capture reductions in tax liabilities for filers who end up owing less when they file. “The evidence is stronger that more tax relief is relatively flowing to those who otherwise would owe when they file,” said Don Schneider, deputy head of U.S. policy at Piper Sandler. But he noted, “Owing less money is harder to notice than getting cash in hand.”
Higher-income taxpayers so far appear to be getting larger gains. Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said wealthier filers are “much more likely than lower income taxpayers to report significantly higher refunds this year.” A key reason is the increase in the SALT (state and local tax) deduction cap under the new law, raised to $40,000. That deduction mainly benefits homeowners with large mortgage and state tax bills. Because higher-income filers often file later, their receipts could lift the average refund later in the season — though Lautz said it’s unlikely to reach the additional $1,000 that had been predicted.
Another factor muting enthusiasm: higher consumer costs, especially at the pump. The war with Iran has pushed average U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, and consumers report continuing to spend more on gas. Economists warn the extra cash from refunds could be consumed entirely by higher fuel costs. “The tax refund season might be very good but it’s also being offset by this price in gasoline,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Individual reactions mirror those trends. Retiree Bob Jones, also in Birmingham, welcomed his refund and benefited from an extra deduction of $6,000 available to many seniors 65 and up. But worried about rising gas prices linked to the conflict, he put the entire refund into savings. “You need the savings simply for gas,” Jones said.
For many taxpayers the changes have produced some relief, but it’s smaller and less visible than advertised. Some pockets of the population — especially higher-income taxpayers and those who would otherwise owe — are seeing larger benefits, but the broad, $1,000-per-taxpayer uplift hasn’t materialized for most filers so far.
