In Cairo, evenings that once buzzed with shoppers and late-night socializing have grown quiet and dark. The government now orders businesses, cafes and restaurants to close at 9 p.m. and turns off streetlights to conserve energy. The abrupt change has cost many livelihoods: owners and workers lose the most profitable hours, and unemployment and income loss have risen, says Ahmed Kamaly, a professor of economics at the American University in Cairo.
Those local measures are part of wider fallout from the now eight-week-old war in Iran, which is straining countries across the Global South — particularly in Africa and Asia that depend on imports and labor ties to the Gulf. A blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions around the Gulf have choked shipments of oil, gas, fertilizer, food and medicines. Remittances from Gulf migrant workers are also at risk as regional economies shrink, reducing the money families rely on back home.
Economists and regional experts note three rapid transmission channels from the energy shock: rising fuel prices, higher transport costs, and ultimately increased food prices. In Kenya, Steven Were Omamo of the International Food Policy Research Institute describes how fuel shortages and higher transport costs are already making travel more expensive and unreliable. Panic buying and private fuel stockpiling have followed as households and businesses brace for shortages.
Across Southeast Asia, anxiety is widespread. Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok’s Institute of Security and International Studies says the constant stream of worrying news has people on edge. Thailand has urged energy-saving measures such as working from home and using stairs instead of elevators. Because Thailand supplies fuel to neighboring countries like Laos, shortages there threaten to ripple to even poorer states that rely on Thai supplies.
Agriculture faces particular risk. Fertilizer shortages have hit major rice producers such as the Philippines and Vietnam, prompting farmers to plant less. The U.N. World Food Programme warns that if the conflict persists, up to 45 million people worldwide could fall into acute food insecurity. In Somalia, which already battles instability, terrorism-driven displacement and drought, shortages of staples that normally arrive via Dubai are compounding food-security crises. Shukri Abdulkadir of the International Rescue Committee notes that essential items like rice, flour, cooking oil, sugar and powdered milk have been affected by interrupted shipments.
The economic picture is bleak: many Global South currencies are depreciating, inflation is rising, and unemployment is increasing. Mirette Mabrouk of the Middle East Institute warns that even a quick peace deal would not immediately undo the damage. Energy-price increases, infrastructure damage in the Gulf and disrupted supply chains mean recovery could take months to a year. Households already poorer will struggle as prices stay high and shipments take time to return to pre-war levels.
The cumulative effect is a broad erosion of everyday life — from dimmed city nights and shuttered businesses to more expensive travel, less reliable food supplies and deeper economic insecurity for vulnerable countries across Africa and Asia.