Lost in the shuffle of the 2026 midterms — the unprecedented mid-decade redistricting, President Trump’s sagging favorability and Democrats’ hopes of retaking the House and possibly the Senate — is an election story with implications for 2028 and beyond.
In 23 states, including five presidential swing states, candidates who have denied election results are running for offices that will have a direct role in certifying future elections. That finding comes from a new analysis by States United Action, a nonprofit that has tracked candidate positions on the validity of election results since 2022; the analysis was shared with NPR ahead of its release.
“The goal is to be able to provide voters with the most accurate information possible,” said Joanna Lydgate, States United’s CEO, “and understand exactly what these candidates stand for and whether they fundamentally believe in free and fair elections in this country.”
This year, 39 states are holding elections for statewide positions that interact with elections — typically secretary of state, governor (which in some states helps administer or certify elections) and attorney general (which interprets and enforces election law). States United found at least 53 candidates who meet its definition of “election denier” and are running for those offices in the current cycle.
States United’s definition uses five criteria, including whether a candidate has falsely claimed Trump was the rightful winner in 2020 or supported efforts to overturn or undermine results after audits and legal challenges were completed.
Secretaries of state — usually bureaucratic roles — took on new prominence in 2020, when officials faced unprecedented pressure from Trump and allies to influence results. In Georgia, Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger refused Trump’s request to “find” 11,780 votes. In Michigan, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson endured armed protesters at her home in the weeks after voting ended.
Both Georgia and Michigan will elect new secretaries of state and governors this year, and both have contenders who have denied election results. In Arizona, a key battleground, election deniers are running for all three critical statewide positions, States United’s analysis shows.
Arizona’s 2020 experience is notable: then-Gov. Doug Ducey faced pressure from Trump to interfere in certification but declined. This year, Arizona’s leading GOP gubernatorial contender, Rep. Andy Biggs, voted not to certify the 2020 results as a member of Congress and reportedly called a state lawmaker at the time to explore other ways to interfere with the process.
“We’ve watched these state officials on both sides of the aisle stand up and push back when Trump has tried to interfere with elections and election results in the past,” Lydgate said. “We know that they will do that again. But it’s incredibly important that we elect people who believe in our system and who believe in free and fair elections.”
Compared with recent cycles, the number of election deniers running in statewide races this year is lower. Lydgate says candidates have learned that election denial is often a poor campaign strategy in competitive contests. An NPR analysis after the 2022 midterms found Republican secretary of state candidates who denied 2020 generally underperformed other GOP candidates in competitive states. States United’s separate analysis estimated the “penalty” for election denial at roughly three percentage points.
Still, candidates in states Trump won by large margins, or those pursuing crowded primaries where seeking Trump’s endorsement matters, continue to run on or tolerate denialist positions. Brendan Fischer, who leads research into efforts to undermine elections at the Campaign Legal Center, says a durable “election denial infrastructure” has emerged since 2020. It’s effective at pushing candidates and lawmakers toward false theories about voting and policies to address that misinformation.
“The election denier movement still represents a tiny, tiny minority of the country,” Fischer said. “But it is an energized and active force within Republican politics. It’s an organized interest group that [Republican candidates and lawmakers] need to be at least somewhat responsive to.”