Last week Chevron CEO Mike Wirth summed up his approach to output in four words: “Steady as she goes.” That cautious line captures how many major oil companies are responding to market turmoil after the Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, knocked some Persian Gulf production offline and left parts of Asia facing fuel shortages. Global crude has swung sharply and has hovered above $100 a barrel in recent weeks.
Despite the price jump, the largest producers say they will largely stick to the production and investment road maps laid out before the conflict. Executives argue it would be imprudent to launch large new drilling campaigns based on a spike they view as uncertain and possibly temporary. For years “discipline”—keeping production steady, returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, and avoiding chasing short-term price rallies—has been the prevailing strategy. Before the conflict, global crude averaged roughly $60–$70 for much of 2025, profitable but not a signal to rapidly expand capacity.
With spot prices above $100, the temptation to ramp up output is real. But oil firms note the risks of committing to projects that only break even at very high prices and then seeing those prices retreat. Wirth warned it is too early to make large changes because the path of the conflict remains unclear.
Company moves have been measured. Chevron says it is maintaining its production outlook. ExxonMobil says it is increasing output at the pace already planned. ConocoPhillips has described a small uptick in Permian Basin activity but framed it as modest rather than a major strategic shift. Occidental said its first-quarter results reflected execution as planned, an approach CEO Vicki Hollub emphasized as consistent across cycles.
A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of oil executives found most expect U.S. production to rise by no more than about 250,000 barrels per day this year and by under 500,000 barrels per day in 2027—muted gains compared with the more than 500,000 barrels per day average annual increases seen from 2021 to 2025. By comparison, the International Energy Agency estimates more than 10 million barrels per day are effectively missing from global markets after the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Venezuela complicates the picture. After the U.S. intervened to control Venezuelan oil sales earlier this year and the administration urged investment, output rose roughly 14% from February to March—far short of the large increases sought. Major companies remain cautious: ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods has labeled Venezuela “uninvestable,” a reference to past contract losses, and Chevron says it is prioritizing recovery of prior losses over rapid expansion. Even at $100 oil, meaningful increases in Venezuelan output would take years.
Accounting and hedging practices can also produce confusing near-term results. Producers often lock in future prices; if market prices surge after those hedges are set, hedges can register as apparent losses while the larger cash gains from selling physical barrels at higher spot prices show up later. Exxon reported $4.2 billion in quarterly earnings, down from $7.7 billion a year earlier, but pointed to adjusted figures near $8.8 billion once timing and hedging effects are considered.
High prices bolster cash flow but also raise inflationary pressures and heighten the risk of a global slowdown that would curb demand. Given those trade-offs, the dominant posture among big oil companies for now is a steady, measured course amid considerable market uncertainty.