This is a preview of the new newsletter from The Indicator from Planet Money, a weekly roundup on business, finance and the economy. We pull together the stories that matter and explain why.
The main story: catching insider trading is getting trickier. Right now, there are big payouts for people who can act on privileged information. One recent allegation involves an American service member who allegedly turned $33,000 into more than $400,000 using classified tips. At the same time, millions of dollars have flowed through prediction markets like Polymarket on events such as potential U.S. military action or political upheavals.
Why policing this is hard comes down to how those platforms are built. Some prediction markets run a regulated front end for U.S. customers, but the core trading often happens on a decentralized, crypto-based back end that is global and largely anonymous. When large wagers show up there, it can be difficult for regulators to identify who placed them. Cryptocurrency can make real-world identity harder to trace, even though blockchain records themselves are permanent.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal has proposed legislation to close that gap: treating certain prediction markets more like regulated sportsbooks (think established, licensed operators) so anonymity is reduced and oversight improves. Whether that approach will be effective — and how it would interact with decentralized platforms and blockchain transparency — is an open question we explore on the episode.
Listen to the full episode for a deeper dive into how these markets work, what investigators can and can’t see, and what new rules might do.
What else we covered this week:
– A debate about powerful new AI models and how companies decide whether to release them publicly.
– A look at questions about NATO’s future and shifting geopolitical alliances.
– A retrospective on the intense showdown between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
News we’re watching:
1) Can the grid handle a huge jump in electricity demand?
What to know: Utilities are seeing an influx of requests from big energy users, especially data centers supporting AI. One major Texas utility told an industry conference it’s getting requests that could push its system toward 122 gigawatts of demand over five years — while the state’s primary grid, ERCOT, can supply about 85 GW at peak right now. That implies an enormous expansion, far beyond the normal year-to-year growth in load.
Former FERC chair Jon Wellinghoff calls this kind of projected growth “off the charts.” Grids have limited slack — perhaps room for a modest percentage increase — but not the 100%-plus expansions some projects imply. Wellinghoff and others expect many proposals will never be built because of competition, economics, or local opposition. Indeed, developers have already canceled dozens of planned data centers in recent months due to community pushback.
Bottom line: meeting all announced demand would be extremely challenging; some planned projects are likely to be scaled back or shelved.
2) Does more sleep improve students’ grades?
What to know: California’s 2022 law that pushes back middle- and high-school start times created a natural experiment for researchers. After the change, students slept more overall. Boys in particular showed notable mental-health improvements, and many students recorded higher math and English scores. The biggest gains appeared among Hispanic students and those from economically disadvantaged backgrounds.
Why it matters: This is a simple policy lever with measurable benefits. Starting school later is a low-cost change that appears to improve both well-being and academic outcomes — a reminder that sometimes modest schedule shifts can produce meaningful results.
If you want the full newsletter and extras — including Q&A and the team’s reading list — subscribe to The Indicator from Planet Money and get the full edition in your inbox every Friday. We’d love to hear what you think.