President Nicolás Maduro dances during a march at Miraflores in Caracas. Jesus Vargas/Getty Images
BOGOTÁ — A growing U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean near Venezuela has raised expectations that an armed strike could be coming while stoking fears of a costly South American quagmire. The Trump administration has sent warships and thousands of troops to the region, designated Venezuela’s government as a foreign terrorist organization and signaled both a willingness to talk and blunt hints that Maduro’s rule may be nearing its end.
Many Venezuelans, including opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, back U.S. intervention as a route to remove Maduro, who has wrecked democratic institutions and presided over an economic collapse that sent some 8 million people abroad. But analysts and opposition figures warn that military action would be politically unpopular in the U.S., militarily risky and likely to produce chaotic consequences.
The most extreme option would be a full-scale invasion akin to the 1989 U.S. operation in Panama, which deployed about 27,000 troops to topple Manuel Noriega. The flotilla now off Venezuela — the largest U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis — carries roughly 15,000 service members, a force many experts say is insufficient to secure a country larger than Texas with mountains and Amazon jungle.
A larger invasion could quickly rout Venezuela’s regular military; some poorly paid soldiers might switch sides. But U.S. forces would face fierce unconventional resistance, including pro-Maduro militias known as colectivos, at least 1,000 seasoned Colombian guerrillas reported to be based in Venezuela and acting as pro-regime paramilitaries, and armed civilians trained and supplied by the government. “Any serious land invasion of Venezuela would be extremely complex,” said Jeremy McDermott of Insight Crime, warning of armed resistance in Caracas and border areas.
Despite repression and a widely condemned 2024 election that many viewed as stolen, most Venezuelans loathe Maduro and, according to a Venezuelan analyst speaking anonymously, polling suggests public support for U.S. military action to remove him. Exiled former prosecutor Zair Mundaray said bluntly, “There is no other way.” Machado has released a “freedom manifesto” promising restored rights, market reforms and the return of exiles. Some anti-government influencers even circulate AI-generated fantasies of U.S. capture of Maduro.
That enthusiasm inside Venezuela contrasts sharply with American public opinion. A CBS News/YouGov poll found 70% of Americans opposed U.S. military action in Venezuela and only 13% viewed the country as a major threat to the United States. That gap makes targeted operations — a so-called capture-or-kill raid similar to the Bin Laden operation — politically dubious, Venezuelan opposition congressman Henrique Capriles said: “Do Americans really care about Maduro? Not at all.”
President Trump may hope that the military posture creates pressure in Caracas that provokes a coup by Maduro’s officers. But Maduro has insulated himself with loyalists and Cuban bodyguards, and U.S. pressure so far appears to have hardened regime cohesion and intensified repression of opponents, according to Caracas broadcaster Vladimir Villegas.
Toppling Maduro would not guarantee a stable democratic transition. Maduro controls state institutions and the ruling United Socialist Party holds many local and regional offices. Even if a friendly government emerged, expectations for massive U.S. reconstruction assistance would follow — a prospect at odds with Trump’s aversion to nation-building. “What about the day after?” Capriles asked, challenging whether the U.S. is prepared to spend tens of billions to stabilize Venezuela.
Washington frames the naval deployment, dubbed Operation Southern Spear, as an anti-narcotics mission aimed at intercepting drug traffickers and sinking smuggling boats. Critics say that mission alone does not justify such a large military presence and would be an insufficient measure of success if it only yields a handful of seized vessels and traffickers.
The standoff, analysts say, resembles “a giant game of chicken.” Maduro knows that U.S. ships cannot remain indefinitely off Venezuela’s coast and that time may favor his regime if he can endure the pressure without collapsing. McDermott put it plainly: “Maduro knows that if he can hang on, President Trump can’t keep 11% or more of U.S. fleet indefinitely off the coast of Venezuela. So as long as Maduro doesn’t blink, time is on his side.”