CRAFTSBURY COMMON, Vt. — On Sterling College’s 130-acre farm, newborn lambs frolicked while students checked fencing and feed, a hands-on classroom for agricultural majors. The pastoral scene belied a stark reality: the remote, cellphone-dead campus is set to close at the end of the semester.
For seniors like LillyAnne Keeley, the isolation and small size were part of Sterling’s draw. “We have a beautiful view,” she said in the barn where she helps tend the lambs. With the school’s planned May shutdown, she and classmates are trying to make their final months memorable.
Sterling’s fate is not unique. A new analysis by Huron Consulting Group projects that roughly 442 of America’s about 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges — collectively serving around 670,000 students — could be at risk of closing or merging within the next decade. More than 120 institutions were flagged as being in the highest danger. Huron’s forecast used enrollment trajectories, tuition revenue, assets and liabilities, cash reserves and other financial indicators to identify vulnerable schools.
Many of the institutions most likely to be affected are small, rural colleges similar to Sterling. “Now that this might be gone, I just really worry about some students out there that are going to have less and less choices,” Keeley said.
The strain comes from broad demographic and market changes compounded by years of falling college attendance. “We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms,” said Peter Stokes, a Huron managing director, predicting a major reordering over the next five to 10 years.
Unlike institutions that fold suddenly, Sterling announced its plans in time to let students finish degrees or transfer. Even so, research suggests closures often have long-term negative effects on students. A State Higher Education Executive Officers Association (SHEEO) study found fewer than half of students from closed colleges go on to continue their education; among those who do, many lose credits, and less than half eventually earn degrees.
That kind of disruption already marks the experience of some students at Sterling. Izzy Johnson, 20, enrolled after his first-choice college closed just before he graduated high school; now he faces another campus shutdown months later. “Having to pick up everything and find a new place to settle down is really miserable,” the agricultural and food-systems student said as he weighed transfer options.
Sterling’s origins and small scale made it especially exposed. Founded in 1958 as a boys’ prep school, it never grew large: its enrollment peaked near 120 and has dipped to roughly 40 this year, in a town of about 1,300 people. Sterling is among a handful of accredited “work colleges” where students combine labor with academics — here, students help run the farm and campus services. Financial statements showed the college operating at breakeven in recent years, but with slim margins, President Scott Thomas said.
On campus, faculty, staff and students have tried to keep community life intact during the final months. At a weekly dining-hall meeting, the circle discussed mundane items — bear warnings, contact lists for after commencement — and a shared resolve to make the last term positive. Students scrambled to finish credits required for spring graduation.
The town itself stands to feel a ripple effect. Local leaders worry about lost jobs, reduced local spending and the end of a pipeline that often keeps graduates in the region. “We always joke that Sterling kids stick around. But it’s true, they do, and they contribute to the community,” said Liz Chadwick, a Sterling alumna who now teaches food systems there. President Thomas warned that small colleges can “leave craters in the small rural communities that they have been a part of for, in some instances, decades or a century.”
The trend is visible nationwide. The total number of degree-granting colleges and universities — public and private, two- and four-year — has fallen to roughly 3,700, down from a 2012 peak of about 4,726. Many of the earlier closures were for-profit institutions that expanded rapidly and then collapsed amid complaints and regulation, but private, nonprofit colleges are increasingly strained.
Multiple pressures are converging. Since 2010, U.S. college enrollment has dropped by about 2.3 million students. A sustained decline in birthrates has reduced the pool of 18-year-olds for the foreseeable future. The share of recent high school graduates who enroll in college fell from about 70% in 2016 to 61% in 2023. International-student visa issuances for full-tuition-paying new students fell by nearly 100,000 this year, a decline of about 36%. Pending caps on federal graduate-student loan access, due to take effect in July, threaten programs that produce essential tuition revenue.
“Every major revenue stream and expense category is under pressure at the same time,” the higher-education consulting firm EAB warned.
College leaders are increasingly alarmed. An American Council on Education survey last December found 86% of presidents and chancellors worried about long-term financial stability. A separate poll by Hanover Research and Inside Higher Ed indicated about one-fifth of college presidents have engaged in serious merger discussions. Research by Robert Kelchen at the University of Tennessee found nearly one-third of private, nonprofit colleges ran deficits in 2024.
Financial strain isn’t confined to small private colleges. Public universities face stress from slowing state revenues and federal policy shifts, according to Fitch Ratings. Large private research universities have also cut staff: the University of Southern California eliminated more than 900 positions, and Stanford, Northwestern and DePaul have enacted reductions. George Washington University sold a satellite campus in Virginia this spring — a deal reported to be about $427 million — in a move its president framed as shoring up finances.
Community colleges, which enroll nearly 5.6 million students and are central to local workforce training, face budget squeezes that can erode capacity over time, former system chancellor Daniel Greenstein warned. For them, the danger is often gradual attrition rather than abrupt closure.
Public sentiment complicates the picture. After decades of tuition rising faster than inflation and growing skepticism about the return on investment for some degrees, higher education often draws limited public sympathy. Political attacks on campuses and culture-war disputes have reinforced negative perceptions. Social-media reactions to Sterling’s closing ranged from gloating about market forces to blaming ideological causes.
Still, students at Sterling described deep appreciation for the sense of belonging the college offered. First-year student Jack Beatson said he was grateful to have spent a year there, valuing the responsibility and interdependence he found on a small campus. Beatson plans to transfer to a small college in upstate New York and said, “We’ll all take this place with us, wherever we end up.”
The closure of Sterling College is a local, vivid example of broader strains facing higher education in the United States — a mix of demographic shifts, financial pressure and shifting public attitudes that may reshape the campus landscape for years to come.
This story was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization covering inequality and innovation in education.