A year ago, on April 2, President Trump imposed double-digit tariffs on nearly all U.S. imports. He vowed the move would bring factories and jobs back, lower consumer prices and mark the start of renewed American prosperity. One year on, many of those tariffs have been struck down by the Supreme Court, but the administration remains committed to tariffs. Here’s where things stand on the first anniversary of “Liberation Day.”
The government collected a lot of money but must return half
Tariffs have produced tens of billions in federal revenue. In the first five months of the fiscal year, tariff receipts totaled $151 billion — almost four times the amount collected over the same period the year before. Most of that cost has been borne by U.S. importers and, in some cases, passed on to consumers.
However, the Supreme Court recently ruled that the president exceeded his authority for some of the tariffs, meaning roughly half of the tariff revenues will need to be refunded. Customs officials are crafting a plan to return about $166 billion that was wrongly collected, with details expected by mid‑April.
A domestic manufacturing boom hasn’t materialized
Tariffs were pitched as a way to revive U.S. manufacturing. Trump said the policy would “supercharge our domestic industrial base.” Instead, manufacturing has largely been weak over the past year: U.S. factories had 89,000 fewer employees in February than in April, when the tariffs began.
The administration points to foreign companies investing in the U.S. to avoid tariffs, often citing large figures. Official statistics show foreign direct investment last year totaled about $288 billion — slightly below the previous year and under the 10‑year average.
Inflation remains elevated
Although inflation has eased from its 2022 peak, price growth is still higher than the Federal Reserve prefers, in part because tariffs have pushed up goods prices. Inflation was 2.4% in February, a bit higher than last April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has attributed elevated readings largely to goods-sector inflation, which tariffs have amplified. Economists also warn that recent conflict involving Iran and Israel could push energy prices up and worsen inflation.
The trade deficit hasn’t moved much
Imports fluctuated last year as businesses front‑loaded purchases ahead of tariff changes or when rates were temporarily eased. Over 2025, Americans imported slightly more goods than the year before. Goods imports totaled $3.4 trillion (up 4% from 2024), while exports reached $2.2 trillion (up 6%). That produced a goods trade deficit near $1.24 trillion, about 2% larger than the prior year.
Tariff rates are high, but lower than their peak
Average tariff rates jumped on Liberation Day and in the days after, at one point exceeding 21%. Tariffs on Chinese goods briefly reached 145%, effectively halting imports from China. The administration later reduced many rates, and the Supreme Court eliminated some tariffs entirely. As of February, the Tax Foundation estimated the average import tariff at roughly 10% — about half the peak level but roughly four times higher than at the start of last year.
Erica York of the Tax Foundation notes tariffs were changed more than 50 times between Liberation Day and now, creating planning difficulties for businesses. That volatility, she says, added an “uncertainty tax” on top of the significant effective tax increase from tariffs, weighing on hiring, investment plans, sluggish job gains and slower economic growth.
