What to expect
Nearly 82 million people are expected to travel at least 50 miles over the Thanksgiving week (Nov. 25–Dec. 1), about 1.6 million more than last year. Most travelers will drive — roughly 73.2 million people, up about 1.8% — while air travel is projected at about 6 million passengers, a 2% increase. Bus, train and cruise travel are also rising, forecast up about 8.5% as many people make last‑minute bookings.
Air travel notes
The FAA says this will be the busiest Thanksgiving air travel period in 15 years and expects Tuesday to be the busiest flying day. An emergency directive tied to recent staffing issues has been lifted and industry leaders expect operations to stabilize before the holiday, but recovery could take time and weather- or staffing-related delays remain possible. If you’re flying, allow extra time, check flight status frequently, and consider travel insurance or flexible tickets when possible.
Best and worst driving times (INRIX guidance)
– Avoid Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons in major metro areas — those are predicted to be the most congested periods.
– If you can, leave before noon on Tuesday or by 11 a.m. on Wednesday to avoid the worst backups.
– Thanksgiving Day itself typically has minimal traffic impacts.
– For the return trip, try to start before noon on any day except Monday. The Sunday after Thanksgiving will likely be heavy much of the day; the best time to head home on Monday is after about 8 p.m.
Weather outlook and travel impacts
– Rain is expected to move from southern Texas up toward Minnesota during the Monday–Wednesday peak travel window. Monday into Tuesday looks most problematic across Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana.
– By Thanksgiving Day conditions should be drier across much of the country, but many areas will see colder-than-average morning temperatures — central regions could wake up near the teens (F).
– Lake‑effect snow is possible in parts of the central and eastern U.S. A developing storm later in the weekend could bring heavy snow to western Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota and parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
– Rain chances increase Sunday from Texas into Missouri and Illinois. Travelers returning Friday and Saturday should see generally decent weather in many regions but should monitor forecasts for weekend storm development.
Practical tips
– If driving, plan to leave earlier in the day on peak travel days and avoid Tuesday/Wednesday afternoons and Sunday midday when possible.
– If flying, check your flight status repeatedly, arrive early, and have a backup plan for delays (flexible tickets, alternative flights, or contingency ground travel).
– Pack for cold mornings even in areas that will warm by afternoon, and carry basic winter supplies if your route passes through regions with snow risk.
– For longer trips, consider off-peak travel dates (leave earlier than Tuesday or return Monday evening) to avoid the heaviest crowds.
Bottom line
Expect a very busy holiday travel period, with most people on the road and airlines seeing strong demand. Plan departure times to avoid peak congestion, watch the weather forecasts for your route, and build in extra time and flexibility for delays.