Mohaiminul Rafi, 27, has spent years preparing for Bangladesh’s civil service exams, convinced a government job is the surest path to stability. With campaigning under way ahead of the February 12 election, parties are pitching policies aimed at people like him: cash transfers, interest‑free loans, sweeping job‑creation targets and pledges to curb corruption. “Cash would help,” he says. “But a healthy job market and merit‑based hiring matter more.”
The political field is unusual: former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League has been barred from the ballot, leaving a contest expected to centre on a BNP‑led coalition and a bloc led by Jamaat‑e‑Islami, which has sought to court liberal allies including the uprising‑born National Citizen Party. Senior leaders from both camps are touring the country promising jobs, tax relief, cheaper prices, and an end to favoritism and graft. Analysts and many voters, however, warn that the scale of these pledges will be hard to deliver while the economy struggles.
Economic context
Growth has slowed to roughly 4–5 percent in recent years after pre‑pandemic expansions above 8 percent. Food and headline inflation have stayed in the high single digits, eroding purchasing power. Private investment has stalled at about 22–23 percent of GDP and tax revenue remains weak: the tax‑to‑GDP ratio is under 7 percent, well below neighbours such as India and below levels many economists consider necessary to fund basic services sustainably.
An interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus brought some short‑term macro stability, according to Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of Dhaka’s PPRC think tank. But Rahman and other analysts say the interim government has been inattentive to household hardship and has not restored business confidence, leaving investment and employment weak.
Major pledges and their limits
BNP flagship promise: a ‘‘family card’’ in the name of a woman in each household, initially covering 4 million households with a monthly payout of 2,000–2,500 taka or an equivalent basket of essentials. The party also pledges investment in health, education, upskilling, and credit for artisans and small firms to help them access export markets.
Scale concerns are immediate. Bangladesh already spends about 1.16 trillion taka annually (roughly $9.5bn), about 2 percent of GDP, across more than 130 social protection programmes. A universal family card at 2,500 taka per household would add roughly 1.2 trillion taka a year, nearly doubling current social protection outlays. Experts say better targeting, reduced leakage and stronger institutional capacity would be essential to make such a programme sustainable.
BNP says it will slim down bureaucracy and digitise services to cut corruption and costs. Jamaat proposes a ‘‘smart social security card’’ tying national ID, health access, taxation and safety nets to reduce leakage. Both parties argue that improved revenue collection would enable their longer‑term plans.
Jobs and youth
Young people are a major electoral constituency: they make up about one‑third of the 127 million electorate. Government data show unemployment among college‑educated people at 13.5 percent in 2024—roughly 885,000 graduates without work—while overall unemployment is about 4.63 percent, or 2.7 million people.
BNP has pledged to create 10 million jobs within 18 months, provide temporary support to the ‘‘educated unemployed,’’ enforce merit‑based government hiring, and expand the digital economy with 800,000 IT jobs and multiple international payment gateways for freelancers. Jamaat promises to train 10 million youth over five years, set up a ‘‘youth tech lab’’ in every sub‑district, run district‑level job banks to connect people to 5 million jobs, promote entrepreneurship and freelancing, and offer interest‑free monthly loans up to 10,000 taka for unemployed graduates for up to two years.
Economists are sceptical. Sustaining the kind of employment growth pledged would likely require GDP expansion of 8–10 percent for an extended period and a major surge in both domestic and foreign investment. Rahman calls interest‑free loans largely populist unless they are paired with genuine skilling and clear, real job opportunities.
Education and student finance
Education measures include BNP’s ‘‘one teacher, one tab’’ plan, more multimedia classrooms, compulsory vocational training at secondary level, expanded midday meals and third‑language instruction to boost employability. Jamaat proposes interest‑free education loans for 100,000 students, limited support for study at top overseas universities, and upgrading large colleges into universities. Analysts caution that student‑loan schemes need careful design to avoid burdening young people; well‑targeted scholarships may be safer.
Tax, industry and agriculture
Tax policy is a major flashpoint. Jamaat proposes cutting corporate tax to 19 percent and VAT to 10 percent while promising to tighten collection, close loopholes and curb corruption. Its finance team estimates recovering 1.05–2 trillion taka and projects that implementing its plans would cost about 2.37 trillion taka, with potential revenue of 2.21–3.16 trillion taka through tighter collection and efficiency gains. Independent experts say a broader overhaul—service‑oriented taxes, automated filing and faster refunds—is needed to raise revenue and improve the investment climate.
For industry, Jamaat proposes a three‑year freeze on industrial utility tariffs and wants to reopen closed factories via public‑private partnerships with 10 percent worker ownership. Rahman says tariff freezes could help briefly but are not a structural fix. The BNP speaks of ‘‘democratising’’ the economy to curb oligarchic advantage.
Agricultural pledges include a BNP ‘‘farmer card’’ for subsidised fertiliser, seeds and machinery access, easier loans, crop insurance and market information; Jamaat offers interest‑free loans for small and medium farmers. Agriculture already carries a heavy subsidy bill—about 400 billion taka this fiscal year across agriculture, fisheries, livestock and food security—so analysts warn that expanding support amid high inflation and constrained revenue risks greater leakage and mistargeting.
Health
BNP promises to recruit 100,000 healthcare workers—around 80 percent women—for door‑to‑door primary care, free primary medicines and low‑cost critical care via public‑private partnerships. Jamaat pledges free healthcare for those over 60 and for children under five, 64 specialised district hospitals and an expanded “first thousand days” maternal and child health programme.
Delivery, accountability and public finance
Analysts say the central question is not the promises themselves but whether a new government can implement them without destabilising public finances and while tackling long‑standing corruption, weak institutions and limited tax revenue. Rahman argues Bangladesh needs a reset that restores business confidence, reforms revenue collection and confronts entrenched graft.
Voters like Rafi say pledges mean little without merit‑based hiring and an end to extortion and bribery. “Promises come easily,” he says. “But if the culture of extortion for business and bribes for a job doesn’t disappear, then we’re back where we started.”