BELEM, Brazil — The United Nations climate summit COP30 in Belém concluded Saturday with a formal agreement that stopped short of committing to a plan to phase out fossil fuels, the main driver of global heating.
The United States did not participate after the Trump administration declined to send a delegation. Negotiators achieved limited progress on several fronts, but failed to reach consensus on a roadmap to move the global economy off oil, coal and natural gas. More than 80 countries had urged the conference to adopt such a roadmap; that group included many developing states, the U.K., Germany and some oil producers, among them Mexico and Brazil. Leading fossil-fuel exporters, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, resisted any process or timetable for winding down those resources, and the final text made no explicit reference to fossil fuels.
André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, president of COP30, acknowledged that many delegations had sought a stronger outcome. About two dozen nations said they will pursue a separate process with the U.N. focused specifically on transitioning away from fossil fuels. Colombia and the Netherlands announced they will co-host an international conference in April in Santa Marta dedicated to the topic. Vanuatu’s climate minister, Ralph Regenvanu, described the new meeting as the most important result from Belém, saying, “The text is not great, but at least we have an outcome.”
No roadmap for fossil-fuel transition
Negotiators reiterated calls for “urgent action” and “deep, rapid and sustained” emissions reductions, but they did not approve a plan to phase out fossil fuels. Many delegates left disappointed. Colombia’s Daniela Durán González warned that mitigation is impossible without addressing a transition off fossil fuels. Representatives from low- and middle-income countries emphasized that any phase-down must avoid sudden economic collapse or social disruption.
Temperature limits and emissions
COP30 took place as fresh scientific analyses suggest the world is likely to breach the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit within the coming decade. A U.N. assessment projects that the planet will probably exceed that threshold in the 2030s, and scientists note that risks multiply with every tenth of a degree above 1.5°C. It remains feasible to limit the extent of overshoot if global greenhouse gas emissions are roughly halved by 2035, which could allow temperatures to fall again later. But current national policies are projected to cut emissions by only about 12% by 2035 — far below the roughly 60% reduction experts say is needed to stay near 1.5°C, according to Alden Meyer of the climate group E3G.
Funding for adaptation and loss
Finance to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate impacts and recover from losses was another major unresolved issue. At COP29 in Azerbaijan, wealthier nations pledged to provide developing countries at least $300 billion a year by 2035 and to aim for $1.3 trillion a year in total climate finance within a decade. However, developed countries have frequently missed past funding commitments, and the pool of money for compensating climate-related losses remains largely empty, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has warned.
Negotiations in Belém did little to clarify new funding streams. The final text “calls for efforts” to triple adaptation finance within a decade and urges countries to “urgently advance actions” to boost support for developing nations, but it lacks concrete new promises. Delegates pointed to recent disasters to underline the need: Hurricane Melissa, for instance, inflicted roughly $10 billion in damage on Jamaica — about one-third of the country’s GDP.
China and trade
With Washington absent, China drew attention as the world’s largest current emitter and a dominant maker of low-carbon technologies such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. Chinese delegates emphasized trade dimensions and sought expanded global markets for their green products.
A new forum on phasing out fossil fuels
Perhaps the most visible outcome was the commitment by Colombia and the Netherlands to host the Santa Marta conference in April, a venue described by Colombia’s environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres, as a space that will be “completely clear that the phasing out [of fossil fuels] is necessary.” Observers said the separate forum reflects frustration with the slow pace and narrow scope of progress within the formal U.N. negotiations.
Edited by Rachel Waldholz