Federal forecasters expect a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, but warn that the danger of at least one very powerful, destructive storm remains high.
The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast calls for 8 to 14 named storms between June 1 and November 30. By comparison, a typical Atlantic season produces about 14 named storms. Of those forecast this year, 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, and 1 to 3 could reach major-hurricane strength — winds high enough to topple trees and power poles, strip roofs and destroy some mobile homes.
‘Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,’ said Neil Jacobs, who heads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Recent seasons show how true that is: even weaker storms can cause catastrophic inland flooding, and rare but intense storms can inflict devastating coastal damage.
Tens of millions of people live in areas vulnerable to hurricane hazards — storm surge, hurricane-force winds and extreme rainfall that can flood communities well inland, including parts of Appalachia and the Northeast. National Weather Service director Ken Graham emphasizes that the impacts aren’t limited to the coast: ‘The impacts go way inland. And we’ve seen that over and over and over again, including most of the fatalities end up being inland as well.’
Why intensity remains a concern
Although the overall storm count is projected to be near or below average, ocean and atmospheric conditions increase the odds of intense storms. Sea surface temperatures in the main hurricane development region of the Atlantic are running abnormally warm, and the Gulf of Mexico is also unusually warm. Warmer water fuels stronger hurricanes, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, meaning storms can produce heavier rain when they make landfall.
Climate change plays a central role in these trends. The oceans have absorbed much of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, raising sea surface temperatures and increasing the likelihood that storms that do form will intensify. Studies show that storms are dropping more rain than they would have without human-caused warming, worsening flood risks.
A strong El Niño is also forecast to develop midseason. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by creating wind patterns that disrupt storm formation, but it does not reduce activity in the Pacific; forecasters expect above-average storm numbers in the central and eastern Pacific this year.
Preparing early and locally
Forecasters and emergency managers stress that preparation is essential. Local emergency agencies are the first responders during a landfall and typically have the most current information on sheltering, evacuation routes and outages. Federal agencies coordinate after landfall to support search and rescue, debris removal and aid distribution, but preparedness at the household and community level saves lives.
Officials recommend reviewing evacuation plans, making arrangements for pets and people who rely on electrically powered medical devices, and checking how to use generators and other equipment safely. Robert Ashe, FEMA’s Acting Administrator for the Southeast region, urged households to prepare early and to help elderly relatives and neighbors. ‘After a storm is not the time to read how to use your chainsaw for the first time,’ Ken Graham said.
FEMA’s readiness and recent changes
The federal government’s primary disaster agency has faced turmoil the past year. FEMA experienced job cuts, funding uncertainty and political pressure to shrink or eliminate parts of the agency, and it operated without a permanent administrator. Those changes meant the agency sent no representatives to last year’s hurricane outlook briefing.
This year FEMA returned to the forecast briefing. Officials say job cuts paused in May, and the administration has taken steps such as nominating a former agency official and installing a longtime FEMA employee in the agency’s second-in-command role. FEMA has also released hundreds of millions of dollars in previously delayed funding for disaster recovery and preparedness projects.
Still, many experienced staff did not return, and the agency has not rehired all personnel lost in the shake-up. How that history will affect FEMA’s capacity this season remains uncertain. In response to questions about readiness, a FEMA spokesperson said the agency is ‘fully prepared for the 2026 hurricane season.’
Bottom line
A season with fewer than average storms does not mean a safe season. Abnormally warm ocean water and a warmer atmosphere increase the chance that at least one storm will grow especially large and destructive. People in hurricane-prone areas should review plans, assemble supplies, check evacuation routes and take local alerts seriously — because, in the end, it only takes one storm to cause severe damage.