A record number of people are expected to travel within the U.S. for Thanksgiving. Nearly 82 million people are projected to travel at least 50 miles from Nov. 25 to Dec. 1, an increase of 1.6 million from last year, according to an AAA report.
Most will drive: about 73.2 million people are expected to travel by car, up 1.8% from 2024. AAA projects roughly 6 million domestic air travelers, a 2% increase over last year, though that figure could dip if passengers shift to other modes after recent flight disruptions tied to staffing shortages during a prolonged government shutdown. The FAA has lifted an emergency directive and industry leaders expect operations to normalize in time for the holiday, but aviation experts warn recovery could take time and weather could still cause delays. The FAA also said this will be the busiest Thanksgiving air travel period in 15 years, with Tuesday the busiest flying day.
Other modes — bus, train and cruise — are forecast to increase 8.5%, with more last-minute bookings likely. “People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments,” Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said.
Driving: Best and worst times
Transportation analytics firm INRIX says Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will be the most congested times in major metro areas. To avoid backups, aim to hit the road before noon on Tuesday or by 11 a.m. on Wednesday. Thanksgiving Day itself should have minimal traffic impacts. For the return trip, start before noon on any day except Monday. The Sunday after Thanksgiving will likely be heavy most of the day; Monday evening after 8 p.m. is the best time to travel home.
Weather outlook
The National Weather Service forecasts rain moving from Southern Texas up to Minnesota during peak travel (Monday–Wednesday). Monday into Tuesday looks potentially problematic across Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana. By Thanksgiving Day conditions should be drier nationally, though many areas will see colder-than-average morning temperatures, with central regions near the teens. Black Friday should be warmer than average from the Great Plains to the West Coast.
Lake-effect snow is possible across parts of the central and eastern U.S. Later in the weekend, a developing storm could bring heavy snow to western Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota and parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. Rain chances increase Sunday from Texas into Missouri and Illinois. Travelers returning Friday and Saturday should see generally decent weather for much of the country, but should monitor forecasts for weekend development.