Roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer shipments move through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Shipping through that choke point has fallen to a fraction of normal levels amid the current conflict centered on Iran, driving up prices for oil, natural gas and fertilizer.
Fertilizer costs have jumped sharply in many regions — in some places about 30 percent higher — creating immediate pressure on farmers and food producers, according to analysts. The Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran, are major suppliers not only of finished fertilizer but also of the natural gas and mineral feedstocks used to make it. Interruptions to those supplies have already forced some fertilizer plants in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan to pause production as energy and input costs spike.
The global market remains fragile. After the 2022 war in Ukraine disrupted fertilizer flows, many countries coped by buying more from Middle Eastern exporters. That route is far less available now, and there are no large strategic fertilizer reserves the way there are for oil. The result: an immediate global shortfall with limited short-term substitutes.
The most vulnerable countries are those that rely heavily on imported fertilizer and have upcoming planting seasons. South Asian nations — Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka — are among the first likely to feel shortages, followed by East African countries such as Sudan, Kenya and Somalia, and parts of the Middle East including Turkey and Jordan. How soon each place is affected depends on local cropping calendars.
In India, for example, farmers are already anxious ahead of the June planting season. Preparations normally begin weeks or months in advance, and uncertainty about fertilizer availability and cost is creating worry about the next crop cycle. Even modest increases in staple food prices can have outsized effects for poor households: a five to ten percent rise in prices could push hundreds of millions of families deeper into food insecurity and worsen child malnutrition.
Higher oil prices compound the problem. Farming operations need diesel for tractors and machinery, and the food system relies on fuel for storage and transport. When fuel costs climb, production and distribution become more expensive, which tends to push consumer food prices upward.
Trade disruptions also hurt exporters. India, a major supplier of rice varieties such as basmati and of fruits like mangoes and grapes, sends significant volumes to Gulf markets. Reduced shipping and frayed trade links lower export volumes, squeeze growers’ incomes and shift global supply expectations.
If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes quickly, markets could stabilize and the disruption may prove short-lived. But if the closure or reduced throughput continues, the combination of fertilizer shortages, higher energy costs and diminished exports risks reducing the amount of food available on global markets and sending prices higher. The consequences would be most severe for low-income households and countries already struggling with food insecurity.
Policymakers and aid agencies face limited immediate options: conserving existing fertilizer stocks, prioritizing the most essential crops, accelerating support to vulnerable households, and exploring alternative supply routes where feasible. Without rapid de-escalation or effective contingency measures, the ongoing Gulf conflict could translate into tighter global food supplies and greater hardship for millions.