In Cairo, evenings that once hummed with shoppers and late-night socializing have gone quiet. Authorities are ordering shops, cafes and restaurants to close by 9 p.m. and dimming streetlights to save energy. The change cuts off the most profitable hours for many small businesses and their employees, driving income losses and rising unemployment, says Ahmed Kamaly, an economics professor at the American University in Cairo.
Those local austerity measures reflect broader consequences from a conflict in Iran now eight weeks in. Disruptions around the Gulf and a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have choked deliveries of oil, gas, fertilizer, food and medicines, while slowing economic activity in Gulf states threatens remittances that millions of families in Africa and Asia rely on.
Economists identify three fast-moving channels by which the energy shock spreads: higher fuel prices, increased transport costs and, ultimately, more expensive food. In Kenya, Steven Were Omamo of the International Food Policy Research Institute says fuel shortages and rising transport costs are already making travel costlier and less reliable. Households and businesses are stockpiling fuel, and panic buying has followed as people brace for shorter supplies.
Across Southeast Asia, anxiety is widespread. Thitinan Pongsudhirak at Bangkok’s Institute of Security and International Studies says a steady drumbeat of worrying headlines has put people on edge. Thailand has promoted energy-saving steps such as working from home and using stairs instead of elevators. Because Thailand supplies fuel to neighbors like Laos, shortages there risk cascading into poorer states that depend on Thai imports.
Agriculture is especially exposed. Fertilizer shortfalls are hurting major rice producers, including the Philippines and Vietnam, prompting some farmers to reduce plantings. The U.N. World Food Programme warns that if the conflict continues, up to 45 million people could slide into acute food insecurity. In Somalia, already struggling with instability, terrorism-driven displacement and drought, interrupted shipments through Dubai are compounding shortages of staples such as rice, flour, cooking oil, sugar and powdered milk, according to Shukri Abdulkadir of the International Rescue Committee.
The macroeconomic picture is grim: many currencies across the Global South are depreciating, inflation is rising and unemployment is climbing. Mirette Mabrouk of the Middle East Institute cautions that even a quick peace deal would not immediately reverse the damage. Higher energy prices, infrastructure damage in the Gulf and fractured supply chains mean recovery could take months or even a year, leaving already vulnerable households to cope with sustained price pressure and delayed shipments.
Taken together, the effects are reshaping everyday life across Africa and Asia: dimmed city nights and shuttered businesses, costlier and less reliable travel, disrupted food supplies and deeper economic insecurity for millions who can least afford it.