NPR’s Adrian Ma speaks with Lebanese journalist Kim Ghattas about how the widening conflict between the U.S. and Israel on one side and Iran on the other is reshaping the region.
Ghattas, based near Beirut, describes the heavy disruption in Lebanon after an Israeli evacuation order covered much of the southern suburbs of Beirut. Those suburbs are densely populated neighborhoods within the city’s sprawling urban area; about 800,000 people—roughly 13% of Lebanon’s population—were displaced. The scale of the evacuation has produced widespread panic and pressure across the country.
Lebanon is entering a dangerous new phase, Ghattas says, with the threat of a deeper Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon. That area contains much of Hezbollah’s infrastructure and offices, and there are fears that people may not be able to return to the southern suburbs if military operations continue. Hezbollah’s recent decision to fire rockets at Israel in solidarity with Iran—marking the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei—has intensified the conflict and provoked anger across Lebanon, particularly among non-Shia communities.
Ghattas emphasizes that Hezbollah is not the Lebanese government. Lebanon’s government has declared Hezbollah’s military actions illegal, called for Iranian Revolutionary Guards to leave, and arrested some individuals carrying weapons in the south. But many Lebanese view these measures as inadequate or belated. Officials could have, over the past year, attempted to assert state control in southern Lebanon more forcefully; they largely refrained to avoid provoking internal conflict. That restraint has now left the country embroiled in a war with Israel.
Asked whether the situation could still spark a civil war, Ghattas says she does not think a full civil war is imminent. While resentment toward Hezbollah is widespread and isolated incidents are possible, the government’s past reluctance to confront Hezbollah has often been justified by fears of civil strife. Now Lebanon faces the heavy burden of enduring intense warfare twice within roughly 18 months.
On the broader regional impact, Ghattas notes that Iran’s missile and drone strikes into neighboring countries—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Oman—are intended to raise the costs of the conflict for the entire region. Although Iran frames some strikes as targeting U.S. military facilities, civilian sites have been hit as well. The strikes aim to push Gulf states and others to pressure the U.S. to de-escalate lest the region suffer prolonged economic and security damage: higher oil prices, disrupted trade routes, damage to energy production, and negative impacts on tourism.
That strategy carries risks. Ghattas says Gulf states, which had earlier moved toward détente with Tehran in some cases, are rallying together in response to the conflict. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite recent disagreements, have united in the face of the violence. While Gulf governments have not publicly committed to military involvement—keeping their airspace and territory off-limits for operations—they are increasingly aligned against Iran and could exert diplomatic pressure on the U.S. to manage the crisis.
Ghattas doubts that Gulf states will actively join combat at this stage; their preference appears to be to avoid direct participation while protecting their economic and security interests. Still, Iran’s attempt to involve neighboring countries in the costs of the war could backfire by consolidating regional opposition to Tehran.
The interview closes with Ghattas reflecting on how this conflict may have long-term consequences for regional alignments and the political landscape across the Middle East.
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