Islamabad, Pakistan — The US and Israel offensive against Iran has killed more than 1,400 people, prompted retaliatory strikes by Tehran on Gulf states and Israel, and lifted oil prices above $100 a barrel. Eighteen days into the fighting, relief agencies and Iran’s neighbours are increasingly worried about a possible refugee emergency.
The UN refugee agency says about 3.2 million people have been displaced inside Iran since strikes began on February 28. Cross-border movement so far has been limited, but bordering states are preparing for large outflows. Iran shares frontiers with Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkiye and Turkmenistan; Iraq has the longest border at nearly 1,600 km (994 miles).
On the ground pressure is rising. Iran’s Red Crescent reports more than 10,000 civilian sites damaged, including 65 schools and 32 health facilities, and residential areas in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan have been hit. Commercial flights have been suspended as Iranian airspace is closed.
Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at Nightingale International, said strikes concentrated on Tehran and western and southwestern Iran are driving internal displacement toward provinces adjoining Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, creating preconditions for cross-border movement. He warned that if Tehran lost power or water supplies, urban services would collapse and produce sudden, massive displacement rather than gradual flows.
Among Iran’s neighbours, Turkiye, Iraq and Pakistan have the most experience hosting large refugee populations. Imtiaz Baloch, an independent researcher on Pakistan and Central Asia, said many Iranians would likely seek refuge in Iraq and Turkiye if the crisis deepens. Turkiye, which allows visa-free entry for Iranian citizens and hosts about 3.6 million Syrians, is especially politically exposed: public sentiment against migrants has hardened and domestic politics are sensitive to new arrivals.
Turkiye shares a 530 km (329-mile) frontier with Iran and says it prepared three contingency plans: intercepting migration within Iran, creating buffer zones along the border, and admitting refugees under controlled conditions as a last resort. Turkish authorities say they have reinforced the border with 380 km of concrete wall, 203 optical towers and 43 observation posts. Government data showed 5,010 people entered Turkiye from Iran between March 1 and 3 while 5,495 exited. NATO confirmed it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish airspace on March 9; debris fell near Gaziantep. Iran denied responsibility.
Analysts warn the scale of the Iranian population makes the situation uniquely hazardous. Iran has about 90 million people compared with roughly 21 million in Syria when its civil war began. Syria’s conflict displaced more than 13 million people, including about six million who fled abroad; a proportionally comparable crisis in Iran would involve tens of millions of displaced people and far outstrip the capacity of aid agencies, Gusseinov said.
Complicating any exodus, Iran hosts roughly 3.7 million displaced people, mostly Afghans. Mass displacement from Iran would therefore produce a dual crisis: Iranian civilians seeking refuge abroad and previously displaced Afghans and Iraqis inside Iran being pushed again or returned to countries that may be unable to absorb them.
Although most movement remains internal, neighbouring states are already adjusting. Iraq faces a particularly complex challenge. In addition to being a potential destination for refugees, it has been the theatre of military exchanges: US forces have struck armed groups on Iraqi soil, and Iran and pro-Iran militias have targeted US positions in the country. The International Organization for Migration says disruptions on the Iranian side have closed several crossing points, though Iraqi crossings remain technically open. The UNHCR says it is monitoring the situation and that Baghdad would lead any emergency refugee response.
The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq still allows visa-free entry for Iranians and hosts Kurdish armed groups some reports say have spoken with Washington about support in return for joining the fight against Iran. The IRGC has struck Kurdish positions inside Iraq. Baghdad says it will not permit its territory to be used to infiltrate Iran, but experts doubt its capacity to enforce that fully.
In the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan has closed land borders to routine traffic and requires government approval for crossings, while Armenia’s short 44 km border with Iran remains open. Analysts note Armenia’s small economy is already absorbing Russian and Ukrainian migrants.
To Iran’s east, Pakistan and Afghanistan confront overlapping crises. The UNHCR says about 5.4 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan since October 2023, many involuntarily. After the US troop withdrawal and the Taliban takeover in 2021, an estimated one to 1.5 million Afghans fled to Iran, bringing Iran’s Afghan population to five or six million. Between late 2023 and the end of 2025, Pakistan and Iran carried out large-scale deportations, sending an estimated 2.8–3.5 million Afghans back; Pakistan repatriated more than 1.3 million and Iran nearly two million in 2025 alone. So far this year more than 232,500 Afghans have returned, including 146,206 from Pakistan and 86,253 from Iran.
Relief agencies warn the war in Iran could accelerate returns to Afghanistan, straining communities and triggering further movement. Pakistan and Afghanistan have also clashed over accusations that armed groups operate from Afghan soil; in October 2025 Pakistan closed its border with Afghanistan, and since then Afghanistan’s trade ties with Iran have strengthened. Gusseinov said destabilisation in Iran would affect Afghanistan through reduced trade and renewed return flows.
Pakistan’s border with Iran runs through Balochistan, a large, restive province where separatist insurgency has flared. Islamabad’s recent operations in Balochistan claimed the deaths of 216 fighters, and provincial officials say they could initially accommodate refugees, but researchers warn resources and security constraints make the reality more complicated. The porous border abuts Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, home to separatist groups; a significant refugee influx could impose heavy security and economic costs on Pakistan.