Robert Kagan warns that the United States is on a plausible path toward authoritarian rule under Donald Trump. Writing as a scholar of politics and international affairs, he argues this is not speculation but a pattern: steps taken since late 2023 and actions proposed for a second Trump term add up to a coherent strategy to concentrate power and neutralize opposition.
Kagan lists concrete mechanisms he sees as familiar from historical autocracies. These include efforts to dismantle or politicize parts of the federal bureaucracy, to subordinate or co-opt the Justice Department, the FBI, and the CIA, and to create aggressive enforcement units—most notably an ICE unit—that act as a ‘‘brute squad’’ to intimidate dissent and enforce political priorities. He highlights proposals to federalize state-run elections, install partisan overseers, build a national voter file, seize ballots as has happened in some local episodes, and deploy federal forces to counties or districts deemed hostile. Taken together, these measures, he warns, are designed to prevent opposition victories and lock in power.
Central to Kagan’s alarm is Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election result and his repeated advocacy of federal intervention in state elections. Kagan treats these not as rhetorical excesses but as tactical blueprints: denying electoral legitimacy provides justification for extraordinary interventions; controlling the mechanisms of elections and intimidating opposition voters could nullify democratic competition in practice.
Kagan attributes the drive to both personal and political motives. He sees Trump as treating Democratic control of Congress as an existential threat, potentially triggering impeachment, and therefore seeking preemptive means to disempower opponents. He catalogs traits common to authoritarian leaders—narcissism, constant lying, transactionalism, corruption, and a relentless appetite for power—and argues these personal qualities shape governing strategy rather than merely producing erratic rhetoric.
A key operational instrument in Kagan’s account is the use of immigration enforcement and other federal units to create fear and disruption. ICE operations, he argues, can serve multiple political ends beyond immigration enforcement: generating public disorder to justify invoking emergency powers like the Insurrection Act, intimidating communities—especially nonwhite ones—to suppress turnout, and demonstrating willingness to use force against domestic populations. Early deployments in cities such as Minneapolis are framed as potential test runs rather than isolated incidents.
Kagan places this contemporary threat in a longer historical context. Antiliberal currents—ethno-religious nationalism and visions of America that reject the founders’ universalist ideals—have long coexisted with liberal traditions. The Constitution itself was a compromise on slavery, and the struggle over equality and inclusion has repeatedly reshaped American politics. The liberal ascendancy of the 20th century is not permanent, he warns; the forces that resisted equality in earlier eras are active again and seek to redefine who counts as American.
On institutional restraints, Kagan is sober. He doubts courts, including the Supreme Court, would reliably block sweeping national-security or emergency claims; he reminds readers of historical deference in cases like Korematsu. He is also skeptical that Republican lawmakers will provide a dependable bulwark. If courts and congressional Republicans fail to check abuses, the remaining defenses are ordinary citizens, civic institutions, and elite resistance. Here Kagan expresses disappointment: universities, major law firms, and many corporate leaders have too often accommodated or capitulated rather than mobilizing to defend democratic norms.
Kagan also warns of international consequences. He argues Trump’s rhetoric and actions have already weakened alliances, undermined NATO’s credibility, and encouraged right-wing movements abroad without formally withdrawing from commitments. If the United States no longer reliably supplies security or upholds alliance norms, the post–World War II order could fray. That would make great-power politics more multipolar and unstable, increasing the risk of competitive spheres of influence, rearmament, and confrontation among major powers.
Responding to the threat, Kagan calls for action on multiple fronts: courageous civic engagement, decisive political leadership, and moral and institutional resistance from elites. He praises grassroots protests as important but fragile, and faults Democratic leaders and institutions for insufficiently countering the drift toward authoritarian practices. He is skeptical that the damage to the professional norms of the FBI, CIA, and Justice Department can be fully reversed, and worries that politicization of the civil service will make restoration of nonpartisan governance slow and painful.
Kagan frames his argument as rooted in a defense of liberal democratic principles—universal individual rights and protections against state overreach—that require both moral commitment and effective power to sustain. He warns that without vigorous defense at home and sustained alliances abroad, the United States risks both domestic autocracy and a return to a more dangerous, multipolar international order. His bottom line: consolidation of dictatorship is not a distant abstraction but an urgent possibility unless citizens, institutions, and leaders recognize the danger and act decisively to protect democratic processes, norms, and alliances.