An attendee holds a U.S. and Israeli flag at an October 7th memorial rally near the Washington Monument in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 7, 2024. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
From New Jersey to North Carolina to Tuesday’s primaries in Illinois, Israel has emerged as a prominent issue in Democratic primaries. Polling shows declining U.S. support for Israel, especially among younger Americans and Democrats, and the most Democratic districts are drawing progressive challengers and activists.
In Illinois, groups affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) spent tens of millions of dollars in primary campaigns, turning that spending into a political flashpoint, as WBEZ reported.
What the politics are
AIPAC is a leading pro-Israel lobby that endorses and finances candidates. For decades it has worked to shape U.S. policy toward Israel and influence lawmakers and presidents, while also generating controversy. It has clashed with presidents from both parties over foreign policy, been involved in past legal scandals, and strongly opposed the Iran nuclear deal during the Obama administration.
Today, many progressives oppose AIPAC because of its robust backing of Israel. Israel’s occupation of Gaza and its response to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks have drawn sharp criticism and mass protests worldwide. At the same time, antisemitic attacks have risen, including a synagogue attack in Michigan, the Bondi Beach massacre in Australia in December 2025, and the killing of two Israeli Embassy staffers near the Jewish Museum in Washington last year.
What the polling shows
Polling from Gallup and NBC News shows a clear shift. For the first time since Gallup began asking the question about a quarter-century ago, more Americans now say their sympathies lie more with Palestinians than Israelis — 41% to 36%. In 2018, nearly two-thirds sided more with Israelis.
An NBC News poll this week showed a 40%-39% split favoring Israelis, but the share saying they sympathize more with Palestinians has risen from 13% in 2013 to 39% now. Those are substantial swings.
The biggest changes are with Democrats and young voters
Among Democrats, the reversal has been dramatic. In 2014, Democrats’ sympathies with Israelis reached 58%. Now Gallup finds Democrats at 17% sympathy for Israelis versus 65% for Palestinians.
Americans 18-34 have shifted similarly. In 2018, younger voters sided with Israelis 59%-21%. As of February, Gallup found that cohort at roughly 53% more with Palestinians and 23% with Israelis. NBC’s polling also shows large swings: Democrats moved from 34%-18% more supportive of Israelis in 2013 to 67%-17% now siding with Palestinians. Since 2023, voters 18-34 went from a 37% negative view of Israel to 63%.
Independents and middle-aged voters slipping
Independents have also shifted: Gallup shows their sympathy for Israelis fell from 63% in 2013 to just 30% now, with 41% siding with Palestinians. NBC finds a similar tripling in sympathetic views toward Palestinians among independents since 2013. Among 35-54-year-olds, support for Israel fell from 45% last year to 28% this year in Gallup’s numbers; NBC reports double-digit drops in positive ratings for this age group as well.
Older voters and Republicans largely maintain support
Those 55 and older remain the only age group where plurality support for Israel persists, though it has declined to 49%-31% from 65%-24% in 2023. Republicans also continue to favor Israelis heavily — about 70% in Gallup and 69% in NBC — though even Republican support has slipped from earlier highs.
What it could mean
Views of Israel are shaping Democratic primaries now, particularly where progressive challengers are competitive and where AIPAC-style spending is visible. If these polling trends persist, they could influence U.S. policy toward Israel over the longer term, especially as tensions and the prospect of wider regional conflict, including with Iran, continue.