Washington, DC – Pro-Israel groups in the United States are spending millions in Illinois primaries as they seek to blunt growing anger over Israeli policy amid the countries’ joint war on Iran.
Tuesday’s set of Chicago-area Democratic primaries is an early test of pro-Israel political influence as public support for Israel in the US hits historic lows. Investigations and campaign filings show AIPAC and allied donors have poured money into the contests—reportedly about $13.7m in the primaries, including funds routed to shadow PACs—while new, generically named committees that share vendors with the lobby have also spent heavily against progressive challengers. Several dark‑money groups that are not required to disclose donors until after the vote have backed the same candidates as AIPAC.
Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats, said AIPAC is relying on “covert shell” groups because the organisation’s brand has become toxic among many Democrats following the live-streamed atrocities in Gaza. AIPAC’s electoral arm, the United Democracy Project, uses a name that does not mention Israel, Andrabi noted. “AIPAC has always relied on voters not knowing the whole story,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that many voters now reject candidates once they learn of AIPAC backing.
One of the most closely watched contests is the open Chicago-area seat vacated by retiring Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky. Kat Abughazaleh, a 26-year-old progressive activist who has described Israel’s war on Gaza as genocide, is competing in a crowded Democratic primary. Her main rivals include former Illinois state senator Daniel Biss, backed by liberal Zionist group J Street and critical of some Israeli policies, and State Senator Laura Fine, viewed as the pro‑Israel candidate.
AIPAC‑linked groups initially targeted Biss to bolster Fine, but recent efforts have focused on Abughazaleh. In a notable move, an AIPAC-linked group ran an ad supporting long-shot Bushra Amiwala, who opposes US aid to Israel—an apparent attempt to siphon votes from Abughazaleh and possibly Biss. Amiwala disavowed the ad, saying it was an attempt to smear her by associating her with “pro‑genocide, pro‑war” billionaires. AIPAC did not respond to requests for comment.
Justice Democrats has endorsed Abughazaleh and says even a Biss victory would represent a setback for AIPAC’s agenda. A recent Public Policy Polling survey put Biss at 24 percent and Abughazaleh at 20 percent, with Fine at 14 percent.
Progressive challengers elsewhere in the region have also pressed AIPAC’s influence. In a neighbouring district, Junaid Ahmed has narrowed the gap with the pro‑Israel former Congresswoman Melissa Bean while focusing his campaign on domestic issues and AIPAC interference. “It’s dark money vs democracy, and tomorrow we will send AIPAC packing,” Ahmed wrote on social media.
Other competitive Illinois primaries include the race to succeed Representative Robin Kelly, who is running for the Senate. That contest features Jesse Jackson Jr. alongside candidates such as Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, backed by pro‑Israel groups, and State Senator Robert Peters, a critic of AIPAC. In another crowded primary to replace retiring Congressman Danny Davis, AIPAC reportedly prioritizes defeating activist Kina Collins; other contenders include Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears‑Ervin and State Representative LaShawn Ford.
A separate high‑stakes primary will help determine the Democratic nominee likely to succeed long-serving Senator Dick Durbin. Congresswoman Robin Kelly, who has accused Israel of genocide, faces Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton and Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi—both strong Israel supporters.
Andrabi argues that regardless of Tuesday’s outcomes, polling points to a shrinking influence for AIPAC within the Democratic electorate. He accused the lobby of shifting tactics from trying to elect favored candidates to concentrating on blocking progressive hopefuls. “We want to win all these races without a doubt. But I think it is very clear that AIPAC is losing the long‑term battle for the future of this party,” he said.
An NBC poll published Monday indicated that just 17 percent of Democratic voters sympathise more with Israelis than Palestinians, underscoring the shifting terrain. The primaries also come as the US‑led actions against Iran begin to affect Americans directly, including higher fuel prices, and many Democratic candidates have voiced opposition to strikes on Iran without congressional approval.
For progressive activists and their allies, Tuesday’s votes are an early referendum on foreign policy and the role of pro‑Israel lobbying in Democratic politics. “This Democratic base does not want any more forever wars,” Andrabi said. “They do not want a war with Iran, and they do not want a war that we are waging for the sake of Israel or AIPAC.”