Mohaiminul Rafi, 27, has spent years preparing for Bangladesh’s civil service exams, chasing what he calls “the most reliable route to a secure life”: a first‑class government job. With election campaigning under way, he is hearing promises aimed at people like him: cash support or interest‑free loans for the jobless, and sweeping job‑creation targets. “Of course it would help,” he says of cash support. “But honestly, what matters more is a healthy job market and recruitment on merit.”
Rafi joined the 2024 protests that began over a job reservation system and later toppled then‑Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. Now Bangladesh heads to an election on February 12. With Hasina’s Awami League barred from the ballot, the race is expected to centre on a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)‑led coalition and a bloc led by Jamaat‑e‑Islami, which has courted liberal allies including the uprising‑born National Citizen Party.
Senior figures from both camps are travelling the country, promising jobs, price relief, tax cuts, and an end to corruption and discrimination. But analysts and voters say the scale of these pledges may be difficult to deliver as Bangladesh grapples with slowing growth, persistent inflation and weak revenue collection.
Economic backdrop
Growth has slowed to about 4–5 percent in recent years after expanding above 8 percent before the pandemic, while food and overall inflation have lingered in the high single digits, squeezing purchasing power. Private investment has stalled at roughly 22–23 percent of GDP and the tax‑to‑GDP ratio remains under 7 percent, well below neighbours such as India and the levels many economists deem necessary to sustainably fund basic services.
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus’s interim administration brought “some measure of immediate stability to macro indicators,” says Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Dhaka think tank PPRC. But Rahman and other analysts argue the interim government has been “extraordinarily inattentive” to household distress and has failed to generate business confidence, leaving investment and employment weak.
Competing promises
The BNP’s flagship pledge is a “family card” in the name of a woman in each household, initially covering 4 million households with either 2,000–2,500 taka ($16–$20) a month or an equivalent monthly basket of essentials. BNP leaders say they will also invest in health, education, upskilling, and credit for artisans and small industries to help them access international markets.
Economists point to scale and delivery challenges. Bangladesh currently spends about 1.16 trillion taka a year (roughly $9.5bn), about 2 percent of GDP, on social protection across more than 130 programmes. A national family card at 2,500 taka per household would cost roughly 1.2 trillion taka annually, effectively doubling current social protection outlays. Experts warn that improved targeting, reducing leakage and ensuring institutional capacity will be essential.
The BNP argues it will shrink bureaucracy and digitise services to reduce corruption and delivery costs. Jamaat proposes a “smart social security card” linking the national ID, health access, taxation and social safety nets to reduce leakage and improve efficiency. Both parties say better revenue collection would enable longer‑term plans.
Jobs, education and youth
Young voters—about one‑third of Bangladesh’s 127 million electorate—are a central focus. Government data shows unemployment among college‑educated people at 13.5 percent in 2024, roughly 885,000 graduates without work, while overall unemployment is about 4.63 percent, or 2.7 million people.
The BNP has pledged to create 10 million jobs within 18 months, provide financial support to the “educated unemployed” until they find work, ensure merit‑based government recruitment, and expand the digital economy with 800,000 IT jobs and multiple international payment gateways to help freelancers. Jamaat promises to train 10 million youth in five years, establish a “youth tech lab” in every sub‑district, set up district‑level “job banks” to connect people to 5 million jobs, create entrepreneurs, expand freelancing, and offer interest‑free monthly loans of up to 10,000 taka ($80) to unemployed graduates for up to two years.
Economists are sceptical. Delivering such job growth sustainably would likely require sustained GDP expansion of 8–10 percent and a major surge in domestic and foreign investment. Rahman calls interest‑free loans a largely populist measure and stresses that skilling and real employment opportunities are the core solutions.
Education pledges include the BNP’s “one teacher, one tab” initiative, more multimedia classrooms, compulsory vocational education at secondary level, expanded midday meals and third‑language learning to boost employability. Jamaat proposes interest‑free education loans for 100,000 students, limited overseas study support for top universities, and upgrading large colleges into universities. Analysts caution that student‑loan models need careful design to avoid burdens on youth; scholarships with strict targeting may be safer.
Tax cuts and revenue
Tax policy is a flashpoint. Jamaat proposes cuts—corporate tax to 19 percent and VAT to 10 percent—while claiming sizable gains from tightening collection, plugging loopholes and curbing corruption. Its finance team estimates recovering 1.05–2 trillion taka and projects implementing its proposals at a cost of about 2.37 trillion taka, with potential revenue of 2.21–3.16 trillion taka through tighter taxation and efficiency gains. CPD experts say a broader overhaul—service‑oriented taxes, automated filing and efficient refunds—is needed to boost revenue and improve investment climate.
Industry, farmers and health
Jamaat pledges a three‑year freeze on industrial utility tariffs and wants to reopen closed factories through public‑private partnerships with 10 percent worker ownership. Rahman sees merit in freezing industrial tariffs as a short‑term support. The BNP calls for democratizing the economy, reducing oligarchic advantages and levelling the playing field.
Agriculture pledges include a BNP “farmer card” for subsidised fertiliser, seeds, machinery access, easier loans, crop insurance and market information; Jamaat offers interest‑free loans for small and medium farmers. But agriculture already commands a heavy subsidy bill: about 400 billion taka this fiscal year for agriculture, fisheries, livestock and food security. Analysts warn that expanding support amid high inflation and revenue limits risks more leakage and mistargeting.
On health, the BNP promises to recruit 100,000 healthcare workers—80 percent women—for door‑to‑door primary care, free primary medicines and low‑cost critical care through public‑private partnerships. Jamaat promises free healthcare for those over 60 and children under five, 64 specialised district hospitals and an expanded “first thousand days” maternal and child health programme.
Delivery and accountability
For analysts, the key question is not just the promises but whether a new government can implement them without straining public finances and while tackling corruption and institutional weaknesses. Rahman says Bangladesh needs a restart that engages the business community and addresses entrenched corruption.
Voters like Rafi say promises ring hollow unless they are backed by merit‑based recruitment and an end to extortion and bribe culture. “Promises come easily,” he says. “But if the culture of extortions for business, and bribes for a job, doesn’t disappear, then we’re back where we started.”
