Meta is planning to launch a standalone prediction market app, internally referred to as Arena, to compete with existing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, according to internal documents obtained by NPR. The effort was first reported by The New York Times and is described in company materials reviewed by employees who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Rather than real-money wagering, the app would give users a daily virtual allotment of “play money” to bet on yes-or-no questions about real-world events. The documents say Meta intends to use its Llama large language model to automate much of the experience: generating questions from trending topics, offering personalized market recommendations, and even resolving outcomes in near real time.
The project has been codenamed Antwerp and FBForecast in addition to Arena. Using AI to both create and adjudicate markets is central to the plan; the documents indicate the company envisions the model having the final say on whether a question’s condition has been met.
Meta previously experimented with a prediction product in 2020 called Forecast, a crowdsourced app that let people make guesses about events, including pandemic outcomes. That product was shut down in 2022; internal notes blamed the operational cost of manual question curation. The new effort is described as a rebuild that aims to reduce those costs through automation.
A prototype will be tested internally before any broader release on iPhone and Android. The documents do not include a public launch date. Meta declined to comment on the project when contacted.
The company’s move comes as prediction markets draw increasing attention and legal scrutiny. Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket see billions of dollars in trading on topics ranging from entertainment outcomes to geopolitical events. Legal questions around market manipulation, insider trading and whether these markets fall under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight have resulted in dozens of pending lawsuits. Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach told NPR that offering a play-money version could buy Meta time to seek regulatory clarity or a federal license.
The sector has broadened beyond independent startups: traditional sports-betting firms such as DraftKings and FanDuel have launched prediction products, President Trump’s TruthSocial has announced plans, and more than 70 other companies are pursuing related projects. Some analysts project prediction markets could grow substantially in the coming years.
Meta already reaches billions of daily users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads, but the company has a mixed record with standalone apps. The documents portray Arena as an AI-first approach intended to scale question creation and market resolution while sidestepping, at least initially, real-money betting amid an unsettled regulatory landscape.