Islamabad — More than 1,400 people have been reported killed since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, retaliatory attacks from Tehran have hit Gulf states and Israel, and oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel. Eighteen days into the fighting, humanitarian agencies and governments next to Iran are increasingly alarmed at the prospect of a major refugee crisis.
The UN refugee agency estimates roughly 3.2 million people have been displaced inside Iran since the campaign began on February 28. So far cross-border flows have been limited, but countries that share frontiers with Iran — Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkiye and Turkmenistan — are preparing for large outflows. Iraq has the longest shared border, nearly 1,600 km (994 miles).
On the ground, pressure on civilians is mounting. Iran’s Red Crescent reports more than 10,000 civilian sites damaged, including 65 schools and 32 medical facilities, and residential districts in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan have been struck. Iranian airspace has been closed and commercial flights suspended.
Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at Nightingale International, says strikes concentrated on Tehran and western and southwestern provinces are pushing people toward regions that border Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, increasing the risk of cross-border movement. He warned that if water or power infrastructure fails, cities could experience abrupt, massive displacement rather than a drawn-out exodus.
Among Iran’s neighbours, Turkiye, Iraq and Pakistan have the most experience hosting large refugee populations. Independent researcher Imtiaz Baloch says many Iranians would probably seek refuge in Iraq and Turkiye if the conflict deepens. Turkiye is particularly exposed politically: it allows visa-free entry for Iranian citizens and already hosts about 3.6 million Syrians, while public sentiment and domestic politics around migrants are volatile.
Turkiye shares a 530 km (329-mile) border with Iran and says it has three contingency tracks: intercepting migration inside Iran, creating buffer zones on its side of the frontier, and admitting refugees under controlled conditions as a last resort. Authorities report reinforcing the border with 380 km of concrete barriers, 203 optical towers and 43 observation posts. Official figures show 5,010 people entered Turkiye from Iran between March 1 and 3 while 5,495 exited. NATO said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish airspace on March 9 and debris fell near Gaziantep; Iran denied responsibility.
Analysts note the sheer size of Iran’s population makes the crisis uniquely hazardous. With about 90 million people, Iran is far larger than Syria’s roughly 21 million when that country’s war began. Syria’s conflict produced more than 13 million displaced people, including about six million who fled abroad—so a proportionally comparable crisis in Iran could produce tens of millions of people on the move and overwhelm humanitarian capacity, Gusseinov says.
Compounding the challenge, Iran already hosts roughly 3.7 million displaced people, mostly Afghans. Large new outflows would therefore create a dual emergency: Iranian civilians seeking refuge abroad while previously displaced Afghans and Iraqis inside Iran are pushed again or returned to countries that may lack the capacity to absorb them.
Iraq presents a particularly complex case. The country is both a likely destination for refugees and an active theatre of military exchanges: US forces have struck armed groups on Iraqi soil, and Iran and pro-Iran militias have targeted US positions there. The International Organization for Migration reports several crossing points on the Iranian side have been disrupted, though Iraqi crossings remain technically open. The UN refugee agency says it is closely monitoring the situation and that Baghdad would lead any emergency response.
The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq continues to allow visa-free entry for Iranians and hosts Kurdish armed groups, some of which have reportedly discussed support with Washington in return for joining the fight against Iran. The IRGC has struck Kurdish positions inside Iraq. Baghdad insists it will not allow its territory to be used to infiltrate Iran, but observers question its ability to enforce that fully.
In the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan has restricted routine land travel and now requires government approval for crossings, while Armenia’s short 44 km border with Iran remains open. Armenia’s small economy is already absorbing migrants from Russia and Ukraine, analysts say.
To Iran’s east, Pakistan and Afghanistan face overlapping pressures. The UNHCR says about 5.4 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan since October 2023, many involuntarily. After the US withdrawal and the Taliban takeover in 2021, an estimated one to 1.5 million Afghans fled to Iran, bringing Iran’s Afghan population to roughly five to six million. Between late 2023 and the end of 2025, Pakistan and Iran carried out mass deportations that returned an estimated 2.8–3.5 million Afghans to Afghanistan; Pakistan repatriated more than 1.3 million and Iran nearly two million in 2025 alone. So far this year more than 232,500 Afghans have returned, including 146,206 from Pakistan and 86,253 from Iran.
Humanitarian groups warn the war in Iran could accelerate returns to Afghanistan, placing extra strain on communities and provoking fresh movement. Pakistan and Afghanistan have also traded accusations that armed groups operate from Afghan soil; in October 2025 Pakistan closed its border with Afghanistan, and since then trade between Afghanistan and Iran has increased. Gusseinov says destabilisation in Iran would reduce trade ties and push renewed return flows into Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s frontier with Iran runs through Balochistan, a vast, restive province where separatist insurgency has flared. Islamabad’s recent security operations in Balochistan have reported 216 fighters killed. Provincial officials say they could provide initial reception for refugees, but researchers warn that limited resources and security constraints make long-term absorption difficult. The porous boundary abuts Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, home to armed groups; a large refugee influx could impose heavy economic and security costs on Pakistan.
For now most displacement remains inside Iran, but neighbouring states and relief agencies are intensifying contingency planning. If the fighting expands or key services fail, the region could face a refugee emergency of a scale that would test the limits of national capacities and international aid programs.