Two things have New Hampshire state Sen. Tim Lang feeling blue: his busted NCAA bracket and a looming threat to state revenue. Lang, a Republican, says the state’s sports-wagering take — more than $170 million since New Hampshire legalized betting in 2019 through a partnership with DraftKings — could be undercut by fast-growing prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prediction platforms sell yes-or-no futures on events ranging from elections to sports. Because the companies frame themselves as financial markets rather than sportsbooks, states do not receive the regulatory fees or tax revenue they collect from traditional sports betting. Lang plans to introduce legislation to let New Hampshire join other states in suing the prediction-market firms, arguing they are “skirting” state gaming laws and depriving public services funded by betting revenue.
Several states already are in court over the issue. Connecticut, Michigan and Washington have filed lawsuits, and Arizona brought criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly offering illegal sports wagers. Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment for this report. In court filings, Kalshi says it is regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission and that it cannot feasibly comply with 50 separate state regimes. The Trump administration has sided with that view.
Legal rulings have been mixed, leaving an unsettled landscape about what counts as sports gambling. “Is sports betting and prediction market synonymous, or are they sufficiently distinct that there should be different treatment under the law? I mean, that’s an open-ended question,” says Michael McCann, director of the University of New Hampshire’s Sports and Entertainment Law Institute.
Not everyone in New Hampshire favors aggressive action. John Stephen, an elected Republican on the council that oversees state contracts, applauds the competition and entrepreneurial spirit the new companies bring. The dispute raises broader questions about how states will protect their revenue streams while regulators and courts determine whether prediction markets fall under federal oversight or state gambling laws.
Todd Bookman is a general assignment reporter for New Hampshire Public Radio.