CRAFTSBURY COMMON, Vt. — Newborn lambs cavorted under the watchful eyes of their mothers and a few students on Sterling College’s 130-acre farm, a hands-on learning site for agriculture and related disciplines. The farm has been a bright spot at the tiny, rural college — which has no cell reception and sees few passing cars — even as Sterling prepares to close at the end of this semester.
For students like senior LillyAnne Keeley, the remoteness and small scale were part of Sterling’s appeal. “We have a beautiful view,” she said in the barn where she checks on the lambs. Now, with the college’s closure announced for May, she and classmates are trying to savor a final semester.
Sterling’s shutdown is part of a broader strain sweeping U.S. higher education. A forecast by Huron Consulting Group estimates 442 of the nation’s roughly 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges and universities — together enrolling about 670,000 students — are at risk of closing or merging within the next decade. More than 120 institutions are at the very highest risk. Huron based its assessment on enrollment trends, tuition revenue, assets, debt, cash on hand and other financial measures.
Many of the most vulnerable schools are small and rural, like Sterling. “Now that this might be gone, I just really worry about some students out there that are going to have less and less choices,” Keeley said.
The squeeze on colleges stems from demographic and market shifts after a long decline in the number of Americans attending college. “We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms,” said Peter Stokes, a Huron managing director. He predicted a shakeout over the next five to 10 years.
Sterling — the seventh private college in Vermont to close since 2016 — offers a view of the human consequences. Unlike some institutions that shut abruptly, Sterling gave students a final semester to finish degrees or transfer. Still, research indicates many students suffer lasting harm when their colleges close. A comprehensive study by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association (SHEEO) found fewer than half of students at closed colleges continue their education, and among those who do, many lose credits; fewer than half eventually earn degrees.
Twenty-year-old Izzy Johnson has already experienced disruption: the college he initially planned to attend closed the month before he graduated high school, and he enrolled at Sterling only to face another closure months later. “Having to pick up everything and find a new place to settle down is really miserable,” said Johnson, who studies agricultural and food systems and is weighing where to transfer.
Sterling’s history and scale made it vulnerable. Founded in 1958 as a boys’ prep school, the college never became large. Enrollment peaked at around 120 but fell to roughly 40 this year, in a town of about 1,300 people. Sterling is one of nine accredited “work colleges” whose students combine labor and academics; at Sterling, students work on the farm and in campus operations. Financial filings showed the college had been breaking even, but margins were thin, college president Scott Thomas said.
On campus, community gatherings continued in the final months. At a weekly meeting, students, faculty and staff sat in a dining-hall circle to discuss routine business — bear warnings, contact lists for after commencement — and students vowed to make their last semester positive. “We’re just going to have a really good last semester and go out on a really positive note,” Keeley said. Several students rushed to finish credits needed to graduate this spring.
Locally, the loss has broader consequences. Town residents worry about jobs, reduced spending and the end of a pipeline that often keeps graduates in the region to live and work. “We always joke that Sterling kids stick around. But it’s true, they do, and they contribute to the community,” said Liz Chadwick, who finished a degree at Sterling and now teaches food systems there. President Thomas said colleges like Sterling “leave craters in the small rural communities that they have been a part of for, in some instances, decades or a century.”
Nationally, the number of degree-granting institutions has fallen: roughly 3,700 two- and four-year public and private colleges and universities now exist, down from a peak of 4,726 in 2012. Most of the closures since then were private, for-profit schools that boomed and collapsed amid consumer complaints and regulation. But private, nonprofit colleges are increasingly under stress.
Several converging trends are squeezing their finances. Since 2010, college enrollment has declined by about 2.3 million students. A lower birthrate that began around that time means fewer 18-year-olds for the foreseeable future. The share of high school graduates enrolling in college has fallen from about 70% in 2016 to 61% in 2023. This year, U.S. visa issuances for new full-tuition-paying international students fell by nearly 100,000 — a 36% drop. Looming caps on federal graduate student loan availability, set to take effect in July, may further reduce demand for programs that generate crucial tuition revenue.
“Every major revenue stream and expense category is under pressure at the same time,” the higher-education consulting firm EAB warned in analysis of the sector.
Institutional leaders are worried. An American Council on Education survey in December found 86% of college and university leaders concerned about long-term financial viability. A separate survey by Hanover Research and Inside Higher Ed reported that about one-fifth of presidents have had serious merger talks. Research by Robert Kelchen at the University of Tennessee found nearly one-third of private, nonprofit colleges posted deficits in 2024.
The financial stress extends beyond small privates. Public universities face pressures from slowing state revenues and federal policy shifts, Fitch Ratings reported. Even well-known private research institutions have enacted layoffs: the University of Southern California cut more than 900 positions; Stanford, Northwestern and DePaul have also reduced staff. George Washington University sold a satellite science and technology campus in Virginia in March in what its president described as a strategy to strengthen long-term finances; the student newspaper reported a sale price of about $427 million, reportedly to a firm planning a data center.
Community colleges, which enroll nearly 5.6 million students, also face budget squeezes that can erode capacity in institutions central to local workforce development, former system chancellor Daniel Greenstein warned. For community colleges, the risk is often a slow erosion of capacity rather than sudden collapse.
Public sentiment compounds the problem. After decades in which tuition rose faster than inflation and many students and families question the value of college, higher education often receives scant public sympathy. Political and culture-war attacks on campuses have added to negative perceptions. Social-media commentary on Sterling’s closure ranged from schadenfreude to blame: “Free market wins!” one commenter wrote; another quipped that the college “woked themselves right out of business.”
But among its students, Sterling generated gratitude and a rare sense of belonging. “I’m so glad I got to spend at least a year here,” said first-year student Jack Beatson. He cited the importance of being part of something where others depend on you, a bond he believes resonates especially with today’s young people.
Beatson plans to transfer to another small college in upstate New York. “We’ll all take this place with us, wherever we end up,” he said.
This story was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education. Contact writer Jon Marcus at 212-678-7556, [email protected] or jpm.82 on Signal.