A sharp political split is emerging this midterm season: the national mood looks unfavorable for President Trump and the GOP, but recent redistricting developments could blunt Democratic gains.
Current public-opinion measures show serious trouble for Republicans. A recent national poll found Trump’s overall approval at 37% with 59% disapproving, including 51% who said they strongly disapprove. Large majorities report economic strain from high gas prices — roughly eight in 10 respondents — and 63% say they hold Trump responsible in the context of the war with Iran. Sixty-three percent of Americans said the economy is not working well for them; Trump’s economic approval sits near 35%, and his approval on handling Iran is near 33%.
Those kinds of numbers matter in midterms. Historically, presidents’ parties typically lose seats in Congress: since World War II the president’s party has gained House seats in only two midterms (1998 and 2002). On average, the president’s party loses about 27 House seats and four Senate seats in midterms — and those House losses grow larger when a president’s approval is below 50%, as it is now (average losses jump to about 33 seats).
The bad news for Republicans is reinforced by shifting support among groups that helped deliver Trump the presidency. Compared with a year ago, key blocs — white voters without college degrees, parents of young children, households earning under $50,000 and many adults in the South — now give the president net-negative job approval. Several crossover groups that moved toward Trump in 2024, including many younger voters and Latinos, have also drifted away.
The shifts can be striking. In 2024 exit polls, white adults without a college degree favored Trump by about 34 points; in the recent poll that group now says it would back a Republican congressional candidate by only about six points — roughly a 28-point swing. Adults in the South moved from voting for Trump by 13 points in 2024 to saying they are now about five points more likely to back a Democratic congressional candidate.
Enthusiasm — a crucial midterm factor because turnout typically falls from presidential years — also favors Democrats. About 61% of Democrats and 2024 Democratic presidential voters described themselves as “very enthusiastic” to vote this fall, compared with 53% of Republicans and just 47% of 2024 Trump voters. Among subgroups, white college-educated voters show high enthusiasm (around 64%), while the most enthusiastic pro-Trump bloc is white men without degrees (about 59%). White women without degrees and parents with children under 18 report much lower “very enthusiastic” levels, near the mid-40s and 40% respectively.
Taken together, approval and enthusiasm trends would normally point toward a strong Democratic performance, giving them a good chance to pick up control of the House and putting the Senate within reach. But structural factors could limit how far Democrats can go.
One of the most important is redistricting. Republicans have recently scored several wins that could reduce the number of reliably Democratic seats. The U.S. Supreme Court has issued rulings that critics say weaken aspects of the Voting Rights Act, and states are moving quickly to redraw maps. Louisiana suspended primaries to redraw its congressional map, a change that could cost Democrats as many as two seats there. Tennessee’s legislature approved a new map aimed at eliminating the state’s lone Democratic-held House seat. Virginia’s state Supreme Court invalidated a ballot initiative that would have supported a redistricting plan favorable to Democrats, likely depriving them of up to four seats. Florida Republicans are also advancing a map expected to help their party.
Analyses from nonpartisan outlets estimate that, so far, redistricting could net Republicans somewhere in the low single digits to low double digits of House seats — one recent estimate puts the range at about five to 14 additional GOP seats from map changes.
In short, Democrats appear to benefit from unfavorable presidential approval ratings and stronger turnout enthusiasm, but redistricting — fewer truly competitive districts and recent state and court decisions — could blunt their gains. The midterm outcome will depend not only on national sentiment and turnout but also on how much these map changes reshape the battlegrounds.