There was another sign this week of a potential 2026 wave that could hand control of the House to Democrats. Republicans won a Tennessee special congressional election, but only by 9 points in a district their candidate won by 22 points last year. That aligns with double-digit overperformance by Democrats in several 2025 contests.
On average this year Democrats have done about 14 points better than 2024 benchmarks (comparing 2024 presidential results to 2025 races, including the governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia). Breakdown:
– FL-1 — 2024: R+32, 2025: R+15; Difference: D+17
– FL-6 — 2024: R+33, 2025: R+14; Difference: D+19
– VA-11 — 2024: D+34, 2025: D+50; Difference: D+16
– AZ-7 — 2024: D+27, 2025: D+39; Difference: D+12
– VA-GOV — 2024: D+6, 2025: D+16; Difference: D+10
– NJ-GOV — 2024: D+6, 2025: D+14; Difference: D+8
– TN-7 — 2024: R+22, 2025: R+9; Difference: D+13
Supreme Court gives GOP a redistricting boost
Republicans hope mid-decade redistricting will help them keep the House. This week the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision split along ideological lines, allowed a new Texas congressional map to proceed despite a lower-court finding that the map amounted to an illegal racial gerrymander. The high court’s conservative majority indicated the map appears to be a legal partisan gerrymander.
President Trump hopes the redrawn Texas map will net Republicans five seats and secure the GOP’s very narrow House majority. That majority is only three seats, so small shifts could change control. But Republicans may not pick up as many seats as hoped. Democrats are redrawing maps in California and possibly Virginia, and a judge approved a Utah map that likely adds a seat leaning Democratic. Weakening a few GOP strongholds to create more marginal Republican-leaning districts could also backfire if 2026 becomes a Democratic wave.
Watch regions like South Texas, where Republicans expected Trump to hold Latino gains. Polls show Latino voters have soured on Trump over the economy and deportations. In New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races this year, Latinos voted about 2-to-1 for Democrats. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found 54% of Latinos disapproved of Trump’s job performance; a larger Pew Research Center study found 70% disapproving and a 12-point drop among those who voted for Trump since his second-term swearing-in.
Views of the economy imperiling Republicans
Republicans’ best path to retaining the House would be improving economic perceptions. Surveys so far show many Americans feel worse about the economy. Gallup reported economic confidence at a 17-month low: only 27% said the economy was getting better while 68% said it was getting worse.
Trump isn’t helping
Trump is viewed negatively on the economy. A Politico/Public First poll found many Americans — including nearly 4-in-10 Trump voters — say the cost of living is the worst they can remember, that the president owns the economy, and that he isn’t doing enough to fix it. Trump has downplayed affordability, calling it a “con job” invented by Democrats, but voters experience rising grocery, housing, and health-care costs directly.
People also express concerns about tariffs. An Economist/YouGov poll found three-quarters say they’ve paid higher prices due to tariffs, including a majority of Republicans; only 13% favor raising tariffs. An ABC/Ipsos poll found 7-in-10 respondents saying they’re paying more for groceries. Republican candidates have largely avoided echoing Trump’s dismissals; in Tennessee, GOP nominee Matt Van Epps emphasized cost-of-living specifics but still faced double-digit Democratic gains in a high-turnout contest.
The economic headwind helps explain why many House Republicans are retiring rather than running for reelection — another sign of a potentially changing electorate in 2026.
