Two frustrations are dogging New Hampshire state Sen. Tim Lang: a ruined NCAA bracket and the prospect of dwindling state revenue. Lang, a Republican, warns that rapidly expanding prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket could erode the roughly $170 million New Hampshire has collected since legalizing sports wagering in 2019 through a partnership with DraftKings.
Prediction-market companies offer binary, yes-or-no contracts on everything from election outcomes to sporting results. They position themselves as financial markets rather than traditional sportsbooks, which means many states do not collect the licensing fees or tax receipts they typically get from regulated sports betting. Lang says he will introduce legislation aimed at allowing New Hampshire to join other states in suing these firms, arguing they are circumventing state gaming statutes and cutting into funds that support public programs.
The legal fight is already underway elsewhere. Connecticut, Michigan and Washington have filed suits; Arizona brought criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly operating illegal sports wagers. Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment. In court filings, Kalshi maintains it falls under the jurisdiction of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission and has argued it is impractical to comply with 50 different state regulatory systems. That position has received backing from the Trump administration.
Judges have issued mixed rulings so far, leaving unresolved whether prediction markets amount to the same thing as sports gambling or should be treated differently under law. Michael McCann, director of the University of New Hampshire’s Sports and Entertainment Law Institute, notes the question of equivalence remains open and could be decided either by courts or regulators.
Not everyone in New Hampshire wants an aggressive crackdown. John Stephen, a Republican member of the state council that reviews contracts, praises the innovation and competition these firms bring. The dispute highlights a broader dilemma for states: how to safeguard revenue streams while federal regulators and courts sort out whether prediction markets belong under federal oversight or state gambling rules.
Todd Bookman, New Hampshire Public Radio.