BUTTE, Mont. — In Butte, where the St. Paddy’s Day Parade threads past old mining headframes and the Berkeley Pit, politics still feels local and personal. Retiree Larry Carden, wearing a Notre Dame sweatshirt, says the crowd will boo Republicans more than Democrats, a nod to the town’s labor-backed Democratic roots. Like many Montanans he worries about outside money and rising household costs — from health care to groceries and gas — that are shaping voter sentiment.
This year’s parade came on the heels of sudden upheaval in Montana politics. A string of high-profile departures, including the exits of Sen. Steve Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke, upended what might have been a routine Senate contest. Daines withdrew his reelection bid just minutes before the filing deadline, a move that cleared the way for former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme to enter the race and sent shockwaves through both parties.
Into that scramble stepped Seth Bodnar, a former Green Beret and recently resigned president of the University of Montana. Walking the parade route, shaking hands and tossing candy, Bodnar emphasized his independence, stressing that his oath to the Constitution — not to a political party — guides him. He is gathering signatures to qualify for the ballot and pitching himself as a candidate who can return Montana to its populist, person-over-party traditions.
Bodnar has tried to tap into Montana’s long history of electing candidates who defy strict partisan labels — a dynamic that helped Democrats like former Sen. Jon Tester win statewide office even as the state shifted red. Bodnar has pointed to Montana’s past, including efforts by the so-called Copper Kings to influence politics, to argue that voters should be skeptical of big money and back an independent voice.
But Democrats warn that an independent candidacy could split the liberal-leaning electorate and hand the seat to Republicans. At the same time, some GOP voters are furious about how the party’s nominee was effectively chosen after Daines’ last-minute withdrawal. Roger Koopman, a former Republican legislator and state public service commissioner, says many Montanans are indignant about what they see as backroom dealing. He calls the process a gift to Democrats and to Bodnar, and contends that some Republicans may abandon the party’s pick and give an independent a chance.
Alme has kept a relatively low profile since entering the race. A campaign statement provided to reporters described him as ‘the Trump-endorsed candidate of common sense,’ pledging tough-on-crime policies, action against drug cartels, and tax relief. But with the chaotic lead-up to filing and the entrance of a high-profile independent, the contest has become less predictable.
Political scientists say the turmoil could shake out in several ways. Eric Austin of Montana State University expects party tensions to settle and Republicans to unite behind their nominee by November, noting that more Montanans now identify as Republicans than as independents. Still, he says this midterm will be viewed in part as a referendum on former President Trump and on pressing economic worries. Farmers and rural communities have been squeezed by tariffs, changes in fertilizer costs, rising interest rates and higher fuel prices, all of which have added to voter unease.
Longtime Democratic activist Evan Barrett, who once worked in state government, says populist resentment is on the rise and that outside money flowing into Montana politics fuels voter mistrust. He worries that funding from outside the state fails to support local priorities like schools and infrastructure, and says this cycle feels unpredictable.
President Trump has endorsed Kurt Alme, but analysts say it is unclear how decisive that backing will be in Montana. The sudden retirements, last-minute filings and Bodnar’s independent bid have turned what might have been a straightforward race into a volatile contest where party labels may mean less than they once did. Voters will now weigh personality, local issues and economic concerns as much as party loyalty in a race that could reshape Montana’s political map.