BUTTE, Mont. — It’s long been an adage in Montana politics that if you’re running for office, you’d better have a float in the Butte St. Paddy’s Day Parade, which draws thousands to the mining city’s historic uptown. Here, you’re steps from towering old mining headframes and the Berkeley Pit, once one of the world’s largest copper deposits.
Larry Carden, in a Notre Dame sweatshirt, never misses the parade. “You’ll see a lot more boos for the Republicans than you will the Democrats, I can guarantee you that,” he says, nodding to Butte’s long Democratic history and strong labor movement. But Carden, retired, is worried about outside money shaping politics again and the rising cost of living in Montana. “Between health care and gas and food… there’s rib steaks $19.99 a pound,” he says.
This year’s parade followed an unusually turbulent few days in Montana politics: half the state’s congressional delegation abruptly retired. Although Montana has shifted from purple toward deep red, those retirements could make the races more competitive because of how Sen. Steve Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke exited and how successors were chosen. In Daines’ case, he withdrew his reelection bid just minutes before the filing deadline.
Seth Bodnar, a former Green Beret who recently resigned as president of the University of Montana, is trying to capitalize on that turmoil. Walking the parade route among Irish dancers and fire department floats, Bodnar shook hands and tossed candy. In an NPR interview in Missoula, he emphasized his independent identity: “I’m an independent… when I raised my right hand at the age of 18 and I swore an oath to this Constitution when I joined the military, not to a political party.”
Person-over-party politics has a long history in Montana and helped Democrats like former Sen. Jon Tester win statewide as the state trended red. The day after Bodnar announced he was gathering signatures to get on the ballot, his long-shot bid began to be taken more seriously. Daines’ late withdrawal sent shockwaves; in a video on X, Daines said he was thankful to have served and cited accomplishments like building a conservative Supreme Court majority and tax cuts. Daines’ last-minute decision cleared the way for Kurt Alme, the former U.S. Attorney for Montana, to enter the race. Daines later suggested an earlier withdrawal might have prompted a prominent Democrat such as Tester to run.
Bodnar frames his candidacy as a return to Montana’s populist roots. “We have direct election of senators in the United States in part because of political corruption in this state 125 years ago, Copper Kings trying to buy U.S. Senate seats,” he said. “That didn’t work back then and it’s not going to work right now.”
But Democrats warn an independent run could split the liberal vote. The GOP base is also angry about the way candidates were selected. “Montanans are getting very indignant about what they see as out and out dishonesty,” says Roger Koopman, a former Republican legislator and state public service commissioner from Bozeman. Koopman calls the backroom dealing by party establishment a gift to Democrats and to Bodnar, whom he describes as “a liberal running as an independent.” He says some Republicans may refuse to back the party’s choice and give an independent a try.
Alme has kept a low profile since declaring. A campaign statement provided to NPR called him “the Trump-endorsed candidate of common sense” who will be tough on crime, dismantle drug cartels and deliver tax relief, adding that “voters will decide.”
At Montana State University, political scientist Eric Austin expects party tensions to settle and Republicans to unite behind their nominee by November, noting that as the state has become redder, voters have increasingly identified with the Republican Party rather than as independents. Still, Austin says this midterm will be a referendum on former President Trump and on economic concerns. Farmers have been hurt by tariffs, and international conflict has affected fertilizer prices, interest rates and fuel costs, all of which create voter unease.
Longtime Democratic activist Evan Barrett sees a resurgence of populist resentment. A one-time economic aide to former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Barrett worries that outside money flows into Montana politics and doesn’t stay in the state to support local priorities like schools. “So this is a really wild and different year,” he says. “Anybody that tells you they know what’s gonna happen, well, be a bit skeptical.”
President Trump has endorsed Kurt Alme, but it’s unclear how much sway that will hold with Montana voters in November. The sudden retirements, last-minute filings and the entrance of a high-profile independent have turned what might have been a straightforward Senate contest into a volatile race where party labels may matter less than they once did.
