BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Spring brought sunny picnic weather and talk of tax refunds at Railroad Park, where Dan and Glynna Courter and friends compared returns with little fanfare. The Courters received roughly $10,000 between them, a sum that felt similar to last year because the couple opts to withhold the maximum from paychecks to avoid owing when they file — a strategy that often produces larger refunds.
That subdued reaction contrasts with White House messaging that this season would be the “largest tax refund season in U.S. history,” a forecast linked to the Republicans’ 2025 tax-and-spending law. Administration projections suggested average refunds would rise by $1,000 or more. Through early April, however, the observed increase has been much smaller.
IRS data showed the average refund at $3,462 by early April, about $350 above the prior year and roughly 11.1% higher than the same point in 2025. That gain is well short of the $1,000-per-taxpayer bump touted by supporters of the changes.
Surveys show many taxpayers feel the reforms haven’t helped them. A Bipartisan Policy Center poll found 62% of respondents thought the changes either hurt them or made no difference; only 35% of Republicans said they benefited. Tom O’Saben of the National Association of Tax Professionals said there is mild satisfaction in some quarters but not the kind of widespread enthusiasm the administration described.
Part of why headline refund numbers look modest is that some benefits are reducing tax liabilities for filers who would otherwise owe rather than increasing the size of refunds. IRS refund totals don’t reflect reductions in the amount people who owe at filing must pay. Don Schneider of Piper Sandler said the evidence points to more relief flowing to those who otherwise would owe, and he noted that owing less is less visible than receiving cash.
Higher-income taxpayers appear to be capturing a larger share of gains so far. Andrew Lautz of the Bipartisan Policy Center said wealthier filers are more likely than lower-income taxpayers to report noticeably larger refunds this year. A major factor is the increase in the SALT (state and local tax) deduction cap to $40,000 under the new law, a change that primarily benefits homeowners with substantial mortgage interest and state tax bills. Because higher-income filers often file later in the season, their returns could raise the average refund as more data come in, though Lautz said it’s unlikely the average will reach the additional $1,000 that had been predicted.
Rising consumer costs are also dampening enthusiasm. The conflict with Iran has pushed national average gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, and many households are spending more at the pump. Economists warn that extra refund dollars may be eaten up by higher fuel costs. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said higher gas prices could offset the benefit of larger refunds.
Individual reactions vary. Retiree Bob Jones, also in Birmingham, welcomed his refund and benefited from an extra senior deduction available to many aged 65 and older, but he chose to save the entire amount out of concern over rising gas prices tied to the conflict.
The bottom line: the tax changes have produced some relief for certain groups, but the boost has been smaller and less visible than advertised. Higher-income filers and people who otherwise would owe appear to be receiving larger benefits, yet the broad, $1,000-per-taxpayer uplift has not materialized for most filers so far.