Dave O’Brien says recent Trump-era actions have left farmers gasping. After half a century raising corn and soybeans in northern Illinois, he describes the current pressures as choking his operation and doubts things will end well. A longtime swing voter, he is frustrated with the Republican Party under President Trump.
Since U.S. strikes on Iran began, restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has interrupted shipments of nitrogen fertilizer, driving up its price at the same time diesel costs have risen for farmers who consume thousands of gallons each season. O’Brien notes the impact on fuel bills, saying that filling large tanks now costs shockingly more and that those rising fuel and fertilizer bills quickly add up.
Other policies associated with the Trump era have compounded the stress. Deportations have reduced available farm labor in some regions, tariffs have raised the cost of machinery and damaged relations with China, and delays in diplomacy with a top soybean buyer depressed soybean prices. Joseph Glauber, a former chief economist at the Agriculture Department, says the result is weak farm finances: when comparing cash receipts to outlays, margins are tight and in some cases negative.
Higher nitrogen costs affect corn more than soybeans, making corn relatively more expensive to produce. Analysts estimate as many as 1 million to 1.5 million acres or more could shift from corn to soybeans, a change that has helped push soybean prices lower.
Farmers face typical risks — weather, global events and sudden shocks — but domestic policy choices have amplified that volatility. Tariffs introduced in Trump’s first term led China to buy more soybeans from South America instead of from U.S. growers, a pattern that has not fully reversed.
The administration has signaled awareness of the pain on the ground. President Trump tweeted an urgent call to pass the farm bill, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told NPR the department is monitoring planting-season challenges and exploring any options to lower fertilizer prices. The Agriculture Department points to relief measures, including a $12 billion program announced in December to help producers facing temporary trade disruptions and higher production costs, and more than $30 billion in direct aid to farmers last year. Glauber warns that such payments offer relief but are not a sustainable, recurring solution.
Minnesota Farmers Union president Gary Wertish calls the subsidies political and argues taxpayers should not be the long-term backstop; farmers need policies that let them earn from the marketplace rather than rely on bailouts. David Oman, a former Iowa Republican Party co-chair, agrees the payments have political consequences and says what farmers most want is certainty — stable policy and predictable markets so they can plan land purchases and major equipment investments. Continued strain in the farm economy could translate into political consequences for Republicans in the midterms, including in key states like Iowa.
Trump has urged farmers to accept short-term pain for long-term gain from trade policies, but O’Brien rejects that logic and finds it insulting. He worries most about young people trying to enter farming; high land values and tight cash flows make it harder for a new generation to get started. As a Vietnam veteran, he is also uneasy about the conflict with Iran and fears it could spiral into a protracted confrontation.
For farmers, the central question is not only how these pressures will be resolved but when they will ease enough to restore financial stability and allow long-term planning.