Demonstrators outside Los Angeles City Hall on March 2 protested the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran. Mario Tama/Getty Images
The war in Iran continues with no clear end in sight. President Trump has proclaimed “We won” but has also suggested the U.S. could be in the fight for a while. There has been no obvious rally‑’round‑the‑flag boost for the president, and the longer a military campaign drags on, the worse it can become politically.
After two decades of involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, most Americans are skeptical of prolonged U.S. military intervention abroad — and that skepticism extends into Trump’s base. Foreign policy may not top voters’ lists of concerns, but military actions that go badly have historically inflicted political damage on presidents as well as causing human cost. Examples across modern presidencies illustrate that pattern.
Harry Truman
People recall Truman’s White House sign, “The buck stops here.” He bore responsibility — and political fallout — for the Korean War. Gallup’s archives show Truman among the worst‑polling 20th‑century presidents: his approval rating was 22% in February 1952. The Korean conflict lasted years and cost more than 36,000 U.S. service members’ lives.
Lyndon B. Johnson
LBJ entered the presidency with enormous political momentum, with approval around 78% after taking office. Vietnam became a political and personal trap. By August 1968 his approval had fallen to about 35%. Despite domestic achievements, the war eroded his standing and contributed to his decision not to seek reelection; biographers note it also took a toll on his health.
Jimmy Carter
The Iran hostage crisis initially produced a brief rally for Carter, who was struggling at home with inflation and energy problems. But a failed rescue attempt in April 1980 — when a helicopter crashed in a sandstorm, killing eight servicemembers — precipitated a sharp approval drop from about 43% to 31% by June. The episode reinforced perceptions of weak leadership; the hostages were freed on the day Ronald Reagan was inaugurated.
George W. Bush
The 9/11 attacks produced a massive rally for George W. Bush — his approval spiked near 90%, and early action in Afghanistan enjoyed broad public support. But the 2003 invasion and long occupation of Iraq proved politically damaging. Although Bush won reelection in 2004, continued violence in Iraq and mounting costs eroded his popularity; his approval sank to the low 30s and later into the mid‑20s amid the financial crisis.
Joe Biden
Biden’s decision to end America’s longest war culminated in a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Thirteen U.S. service members were killed in an attack during the evacuation, and the images and chaos of the exit undermined a key claim of Biden’s candidacy — competent, steady leadership after the tumult of the previous administration. His approval slipped from the mid‑50s in June 2021 to the low‑40s by September and did not recover quickly.
History shows that military engagements without clear, achievable end states can erode presidential standing even when they begin with public support. Beyond the human toll, prolonged or mismanaged wars have repeatedly brought serious political consequences for U.S. presidents.