BELEM, Brazil — This year’s United Nations climate conference, COP30 in Belém, ended Saturday with a formal agreement that omitted any plan to phase out fossil fuels, the primary driver of global warming.
The United States did not attend after the Trump administration refused to send a delegation. The conference produced modest advances on some issues but fell short of a consensus on a fossil-fuel transition. More than 80 countries had pushed for a “roadmap” to shift the global economy away from oil, coal and natural gas. That group included many developing nations, the U.K., Germany and some oil producers such as Mexico and Brazil. Major fossil-fuel exporters, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, opposed creating a process or timetable to move off those resources, and the final agreement made no mention of fossil fuels.
André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, president of COP30, acknowledged many countries wanted a stronger outcome. Two dozen nations said they will work with the U.N. in a separate process focused on transitioning away from fossil fuels. Colombia and the Netherlands announced they will host an international conference in April in Santa Marta dedicated to the issue. Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s climate minister, called the new conference the key accomplishment from Belém, saying, “The text is not great, but at least we have an outcome.”
Key takeaways from COP30
No roadmap for fossil-fuel transition
Negotiators reiterated the need for “urgent action” and “deep, rapid and sustained” emissions cuts, but they did not agree to a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Many delegates expressed disappointment. Daniela Durán González of Colombia said there is no mitigation without discussing a transition away from fossil fuels. Delegates from developing countries warned that any transition must not impose sudden economic contraction or social instability.
Temperature limits and emissions
COP30 convened as new science indicates the world is likely to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target in the next decade. A U.N. report concluded the planet will probably pass that limit in the 2030s. Scientists say risks accelerate with every tenth of a degree beyond 1.5°C. It is still possible to limit the overshoot if global greenhouse gas emissions are halved by 2035, which would allow temperatures to fall again. Current policies, however, are projected to reduce emissions by only about 12% by 2035 — far short of the roughly 60% reduction experts say is needed to stay close to 1.5°C, according to Alden Meyer of E3G.
Funding for adaptation and loss
Finance to help vulnerable countries adapt and recover from worsening climate impacts remained a major unresolved issue. At COP29 in Azerbaijan, wealthy nations agreed to provide developing countries at least $300 billion a year by 2035 and to aim for $1.3 trillion a year in overall climate finance within a decade. But developed countries have a history of missing funding targets, and funds for compensating climate-related losses are still largely empty, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has warned.
Negotiations in Belém did little to clarify new funding streams. The final text “calls for efforts” to triple adaptation financing within a decade and urges countries to “urgently advance actions” to boost support for developing nations. Delegates cited recent disasters to underline the need: Hurricane Melissa, for example, caused roughly $10 billion in damage in Jamaica — about a third of the country’s GDP.
China and trade
With the U.S. absent, China drew attention as both the largest current emitter and a leading manufacturer of green technologies such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. Chinese delegates emphasized trade issues and promoted greater global purchase of their low-carbon products.
A new conference on phasing out fossil fuels
The announcement of a separate international conference in Santa Marta, Colombia, co-hosted by the Netherlands, was among the most notable outcomes. Colombia’s environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres, said the Santa Marta meeting aims to be a space that is “completely clear that the phasing out [of fossil fuels] is necessary.” Observers say the new forum reflects frustration with the slow pace of action within the U.N. negotiations.
Edited by Rachel Waldholz