President Donald Trump has twice suggested since his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping that he might speak directly with Taiwan’s president, William Lai Ching-te. Such a conversation would be historic: it would be the first direct contact between leaders of the two governments since the United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. At the same time, Washington remains bound by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to help Taiwan maintain its self-defence.
Taiwan’s administration welcomed the idea. In an official response, Lai said he would be “happy” to speak with Trump and reiterated Taipei’s commitment to preserving a stable status quo across the Taiwan Strait, while accusing Beijing of being the main source of instability. Beijing, for its part, reiterated longstanding objections: China’s foreign ministry said it “firmly opposes official exchanges” between the United States and Taiwan and criticized proposed U.S. arms sales.
The timing of the comments coincides with White House consideration of a new arms package for Taiwan worth roughly $14 billion. That follows an $11 billion weapons sale approved during the previous U.S. administration, underscoring America’s role as Taiwan’s principal supplier of defensive arms.
How Beijing might react is difficult to predict but most analysts expect a strong response if a presidential-level contact occurs. Observers point to prior flashpoints: former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan prompted large-scale Chinese military drills and a sharp deterioration in relations, while a 2016 phone call between then-president-elect Trump and Taiwan’s then-leader Tsai Ing-wen drew a vociferous diplomatic protest from Beijing.
China-watchers quoted by reporters say how Trump frames any contact would shape Beijing’s reaction. Steve Tsang of the SOAS China Institute noted that if Trump simply announced he had spoken to Lai, Beijing would likely react angrily; by contrast, portraying the call as taken at Xi’s suggestion could soften the backlash. Analysts also emphasize that Chinese leaders are mindful of Trump’s unpredictability; his willingness to cross previously observed protocols makes calculating responses harder.
Trump’s recent visit to Beijing, where he met Xi alongside a delegation of U.S. business executives, added complexity. Trump publicly praised Xi and later touted trade deals that Chinese statements did not confirm. Some analysts argue that the fact Trump raised the possibility of talking to Lai — and even discussed arms sales with Xi — is itself a diplomatic concession to Beijing, because most presidents would not present weapons approvals as a negotiable topic between the two capitals.
At the same time, Trump has signalled ambivalence about Taiwanese independence, saying he does not want the United States dragged into a war over the island and urging both sides to “cool down.” That posture alarms some in Taipei, who worry about relying on a U.S. president whose positions can shift quickly. As one expert put it, Trump may not be anti-Taiwan, but his erratic approach makes Taipei uneasy about depending on him for long-term security.
On the question of whether the new arms package will proceed, Trump has been noncommittal, calling it a possible bargaining chip in relations with Beijing. Taiwan’s government has insisted that U.S. policy toward the island remains unchanged, and Taipei officials, including Defence Minister Wellington Koo, say they are cautiously optimistic about future arms purchases.
In short, a direct Trump-Lai conversation would break long-standing diplomatic norms and could provoke a strong response from Beijing. How disruptive it would be depends on the substance of any call, how it is presented publicly, and what else the U.S. administration decides about arms sales — decisions that, given the current dynamics, remain uncertain.