At the anti-abortion March for Life rally in Washington, D.C., Vice President J.D. Vance told attendees, “I want more babies in the United States of America.” As U.S. birth rates fall, prominent conservatives have begun urging Americans to have more children, arguing it’s necessary to sustain the workforce and care for an aging population.
Those pro-natalist arguments are being used to justify new state restrictions on abortion. Wyoming recently passed a law banning abortions once there is “detectable fetal heartbeat,” a measure that typically takes effect around six weeks of pregnancy. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists says it’s “clinically inaccurate” to call the early cardiac activity seen on some ultrasounds a heartbeat: embryonic cardiac cells may show electrical activity, but the structures that create the familiar heartbeat sound don’t exist that early.
The Wyoming law, which has been temporarily blocked by a federal judge, prohibits abortions after cardiac activity is detected. Republican state lawmaker and former nurse Evie Brennan, who helped pass the measure, framed it in demographic terms: “We’re sending a message that children are important and that they’re the future,” she said. “Without an up and coming population that grows up here that wants to stay here, then we just become a stagnant or an aging slash dying state.”
But demographers and public-health researchers say abortion bans are unlikely to reverse long-term population decline. Suzanne Bell, a demographer at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said bans won’t fundamentally change a state’s fertility pattern. They can cause a short-term increase in births — Idaho saw an estimated bump equivalent to about 240 excess births after enacting one of the nation’s strictest bans in 2023 — but other consequences can counter any gains. Research shows Idaho now has roughly 35% fewer OB-GYNs than before its law took effect, worsening access to care.
Wyoming has struggled with population loss for decades. Students at the University of Wyoming describe limited local industry and few job opportunities as reasons many young people leave. Claire Lane, a senior, said many students know they’ll likely move elsewhere to work. A Harvard Kennedy School working paper found that nearly two-thirds of Wyoming residents have left by their thirties — one of the highest outmigration rates in the country — with young people drawn to larger cities that offer more diverse economic and creative opportunities. Second-year music student Aidan Freeman described Wyoming as “very traditionalist” and “kind of a bubble,” and said he and his partner hope to move to Fort Collins, Colorado.
Harvard researchers recommended Wyoming invest in rural communities, diversify its economy, and expand housing for young people to retain residents. Brennan acknowledged the six-week ban is not a silver bullet for population growth and said the pro-life movement must also pursue longer-term supports: “We have to send the message that not only are you important in utero, but you’re also important on day one when you’re born, like outside of utero,” she said. “And I don’t know that the legislature has had good, robust conversations on what that looks like.”
Pro-abortion rights groups quickly challenged Wyoming’s law. On April 24, a federal district court judge granted a temporary block, restoring access to abortion beyond six weeks while litigation proceeds. The district court will consider the law’s constitutionality; any decision could be appealed to the Wyoming Supreme Court. Earlier this year, that court struck down two other sweeping abortion bans in the state.