Two very different outcomes from recent gerrymandering fights are on display in Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana and Ohio.
In Indiana, a push last year to redraw maps to add more Republican seats failed. Now President Trump and his operation are targeting seven state senators who opposed that effort, an uncommon move for a president who rarely endorses challengers to sitting Republicans. Supporters of the primary challenges say they are enforcing accountability after a priority of Trump’s. Critics — including some of the targeted senators — argue the intervention undermines state decision-making and the 10th Amendment by sending big money from Washington into state legislative races.
In Ohio, courts and legal requirements forced new congressional maps after multiple previous versions were struck down or passed without bipartisan support. The current map makes only modest changes to existing boundaries, and not all are advantageous to Republicans. These primary contests follow a U.S. Supreme Court decision that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, a ruling that could encourage Republican-led redistricting efforts to dismantle majority-minority districts in some Southern states and intensify a broader redistricting arms race.
Trump’s low approval and parts of his agenda have made Ohio a competitive terrain for November’s governor and U.S. Senate races. Democrats see a path to regain seats, with the governor’s and Senate contests drawing particular attention.
Four things to watch Tuesday:
1) Trump’s retribution in the Indiana state Senate
Trump’s operation is actively working to unseat Republican state senators who opposed the redistricting plan. State Sen. Spencer Deery, one of those targeted, told NPR canvassers that national interference in state legislative contests threatens states’ rights. Proponents of the challenges counter that there must be consequences for voting against a high-profile party priority; Marty Obst, an Indiana GOP consultant who led the redistricting push, framed the effort as holding lawmakers accountable.
2) Notable primary challenges to two Indiana House incumbents
Most incumbents who run for reelection win, and primary challengers are rarely well-funded. This cycle is different for two Indiana members of Congress. Republican Rep. Jim Baird, 80, has Trump’s endorsement but relatively modest fundraising. His main Republican challenger is state Rep. Craig Haggard, who has backing from state Attorney General Todd Rokita and many local officials. Outside groups have also spent heavily: the conservative Homeland PAC ran a digital blitz against Baird over his support for a bipartisan immigration bill, while a pro-crypto PAC later bought media in support of him.
On the Democratic side, Rep. André Carson, Indiana’s longest-serving House member, faces several primary opponents amid some within the party calling for fresh leadership.
3) Ohio’s vulnerable House Democrats will learn general election opponents
Ohio’s House delegation currently has 10 Republicans and five Democrats. The newly drawn map could tilt some districts further right or left, affecting incumbents differently: it makes reelection harder for Reps. Greg Landsman and Marcy Kaptur while easing pressure on Rep. Emilia Sykes. Kaptur, in Congress since 1983 and the longest-serving woman in House history, narrowly won in 2024 and now faces a crowded Republican field including her 2024 challenger Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, former ICE deputy Madison Sheahan, veteran Alea Nadeem, and Anthony Campbell. Landsman’s GOP challengers include Trump-backed former CIA officer Eric Conroy. Republicans see Kaptur’s seat as a top pickup opportunity.
4) Will Democratic enthusiasm hold through November?
Since Republicans won a federal trifecta about 18 months ago, many subsequent elections have swung toward Democrats, with larger-than-expected Democratic turnout in diverse states. For 2026, Democratic primaries in many places have shown increased participation, and Ohio Democrats are betting that that energy, combined with midterm dynamics that often favor the out-of-power party, can flip competitive races.
Early voting in Ohio shows more people using Democratic primary ballots than Republican ones, by roughly an 11% margin, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. In the governor’s race, former state health director Amy Acton is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s 2025 endorsement has largely cleared the GOP field. The Senate primary is quiet: incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted is unopposed, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces only a low-funded primary opponent.
These primaries serve as a snapshot of larger dynamics: the role of nationalized money and endorsements in local races, the impact of new maps and court rulings on representation, and whether the recent Democratic surge in turnout can be sustained into November’s midterms.