Overview
The conflict launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its fourth week. Iranian authorities report 1,444 dead, including at least 204 children. Iran has launched repeated strikes at Israeli and US targets, warned Western and Gulf states about further consequences, and raised threats to global shipping and energy infrastructure. Millions of Iranians observed the rare overlap of Eid al-Fitr and Nowruz amid the violence.
Iran
– Casualties and air defences: Iran says 1,444 people have been killed, including at least 204 children. Air-defence systems were activated over Tehran and surrounding areas after explosions were reported as Nowruz observances took place.
– Attacks on Diego Garcia and UK warning: Iran reportedly fired two ballistic missiles at the US-UK base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, according to semi-official media. Iran’s foreign minister warned British lives were at risk after the UK permitted the US to use its bases to strike Iranian missile sites.
– 70th wave of strikes: Iran’s armed forces announced a 70th wave of attacks, launching missiles and drones toward Israel and US bases in the Gulf. Iran has also intensified strikes on energy infrastructure in Gulf Arab states in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the South Pars gas field.
– Holidays and public reaction: Large crowds gathered at holy sites, including the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad, where many gatherings included anti-Western demonstrations despite the wartime conditions.
In the Gulf
– Threats to the UAE: Iran warned it would deliver “crushing blows” to Ras al-Khaimah if further attacks were launched from UAE territory linked to disputes over Abu Musa and Greater Tunb.
– Bahrain interceptions: Bahrain’s defence forces said they have intercepted and destroyed a total of 143 missiles and 242 drones since the attacks began on February 28, including two more missiles reported recently.
– Saudi Arabia: Riyadh reported intercepting and destroying a large drone barrage over its eastern region — at least 47 drones were shot down, 38 of them during a concentrated three-hour assault.
– Kuwait refinery strike: Kuwait said it was dealing with hostile missile and drone attacks after two waves of Iranian drones struck the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery, igniting a fire at one of the Middle East’s largest facilities (capacity about 730,000 barrels per day).
– Regional diplomatic responses: Qatar condemned an Israeli strike on military facilities in southern Syria as a breach of sovereignty and international law.
United States
– Statements from Washington: President Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” military operations while ruling out a ceasefire, and urged that the Strait of Hormuz be guarded by other user states.
– Kharg island planning: Reports suggest US planners are considering a blockade or occupation of Kharg island, a strategic Iranian oil hub — a measure that could severely affect Iran’s oil exports but risks major escalation.
– Force posture: The US is reportedly deploying an additional 2,200–2,500 Marines to the region. Analysts and journalists note that recent movements raise the prospect of possible ground operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel
– Missile salvos and damage: Israeli authorities say Iran launched nine separate missile salvoes at Israel. Air-defence systems have intercepted many incoming threats, but falling debris and use of cluster munitions have caused widespread damage in central and northern Israel and around the western Dead Sea.
– Shelter disparities: Palestinian citizens of Israel have protested unequal access to shelters and protective infrastructure during the barrage of missiles and drones.
Occupied Palestine
– Al-Aqsa Mosque area hit: Missile fragments fell in occupied East Jerusalem roughly 350 metres from the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, causing extensive damage to the religiously significant site.
Iraq, Lebanon, Syria
– Lebanon casualties: Lebanon’s health ministry reports at least 1,001 dead since Israel renewed major strikes, including at least 118 children.
– Attacks on US positions in Iraq: A US logistics support camp near Baghdad’s international airport was struck by rockets, with explosions reported in the area.
– Evacuation warnings in Beirut suburbs: Israel warned residents of several southern suburbs — including Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry and Hadath — to evacuate before strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure.
– Strikes in Syria: Israel said it hit military infrastructure in southern Syria in retaliation for alleged attacks on Druze civilians in Suwayda; the strikes drew condemnation from Qatar, Jordan and Egypt.
Oil, shipping and economic impact
– Oil prices and supply fears: Disruptions in the Gulf have pushed Brent crude prices higher (about $112.19 per barrel), stoking fears of prolonged supply disruption and wider economic consequences.
– Shipping patterns: The Panama Canal is operating at capacity amid increased demand for LNG tanker passages connected to the conflict.
– Sanctions and oil flows: The US lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded on tankers to ease supply constraints; Iran said it has no surplus crude to sell and dismissed the move as largely symbolic. Analysts warn that limited sanction relief during an active campaign against Iran may have limited effect on prices.
– Maritime risk level: The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency says the threat level across the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman remains “critical,” noting 21 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure since March 1.
What to watch next
Key developments to follow include any change in US force posture or declared objectives, further Iranian missile and drone waves, impacts on Gulf energy facilities and shipping lanes, and efforts by regional and global powers to de-escalate or manage the unfolding humanitarian and economic consequences.