From New Jersey and North Carolina to recent Illinois primaries, Israel has become a defining issue in Democratic contests. Campaigns and voter conversations are increasingly shaped by opinions about the war in Gaza, Israel’s response to the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, rising antisemitic incidents and large outside spending on pro-Israel candidates.
In Illinois, groups connected to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) poured tens of millions of dollars into primary races, turning that investment into a political flashpoint. AIPAC, a major pro-Israel lobby that endorses and helps finance candidates, has long influenced U.S. policy toward Israel. It has also drawn controversy over clashes with presidents from both parties, past legal scandals and its opposition to the Iran nuclear deal during the Obama era.
Critics, especially progressives, now view AIPAC and its allies as emblematic of what they oppose in U.S.-Israel policy. Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the conduct of the war after Oct. 7 have prompted global protests and sharp debate inside the United States. At the same time, violent antisemitic incidents have increased, including an attack on a synagogue in Michigan, the Bondi Beach massacre in Australia in December 2025, and the killing of two Israeli Embassy staffers near the Jewish Museum in Washington last year.
Polling shows a clear shift in public sympathy. Gallup reports that for the first time in about 25 years more Americans now say they sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israelis — 41% to 36%. In 2018, nearly two-thirds of Americans said they sided more with Israelis. An NBC News poll this week found a narrow 40%-39% split favoring Israelis, but also noted that the share siding more with Palestinians has climbed substantially, from 13% in 2013 to 39% now.
The largest changes are concentrated among Democrats and younger voters. Gallup finds Democrats now sympathize with Palestinians by a wide margin — roughly 65% to 17% for Israelis — a sharp reversal from previous years when Democratic sympathy leaned toward Israel. Younger Americans have shifted most dramatically: voters ages 18–34 went from a 59%-21% advantage for Israelis in 2018 to roughly 53% siding more with Palestinians and 23% with Israelis in recent Gallup findings. NBC’s polling tracks similar swings, with Democrats’ relative support moving from pro-Israel majorities in 2013 to large majorities for Palestinians now, and 18–34-year-olds showing much higher unfavorable views of Israel than they did a few years ago.
Independents and middle-aged voters have also moved away from Israel compared with earlier years. Gallup reports independents’ sympathy for Israelis fell from 63% in 2013 to about 30% now, with 41% saying they sympathize more with Palestinians. Among 35–54-year-olds, Gallup shows support for Israel dropping from 45% last year to 28% this year; NBC finds similar double-digit declines in favorable ratings for that group.
Older Americans and Republicans remain the most pro-Israel cohorts. Voters 55 and older are still the only age group with a plurality favoring Israel, though their margin has narrowed to about 49% versus 31% for Palestinians, down from 65%–24% in 2023. Republican sympathy for Israel remains high — roughly 70% in Gallup and 69% in NBC polling — although it, too, has slipped from previous highs.
What this means politically: shifting views of Israel are already influencing Democratic primaries, especially where progressive challengers and well-funded pro-Israel campaigns collide. Intense outside spending by pro-Israel groups is drawing backlash in heavily Democratic districts, and candidates’ positions on the war and on U.S. policy toward Israel are becoming decisive factors for many primary voters.
If these trends continue, they could reshape long-term U.S. policy toward Israel as future lawmakers reflect a changing electorate. That would matter at a moment of heightened tensions in the region and concerns about broader conflict, including the possibility of confrontations involving Iran. For now, the issue remains a potent and polarizing factor in Democratic primaries and a focal point of broader debate about U.S. foreign policy and values.