U.S. gasoline prices jumped by more than 30 cents a gallon last week and are expected to rise further while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid the Iran war. According to AAA, the national average for regular gas was $4.446 as of Sunday, up from $4.099 a week earlier. For comparison, the average was $2.98 on Feb. 26, two days before the war began, and $3.171 a year ago. AAA notes these are the highest prices since late July 2022.
President Trump has predicted prices will “drop like a rock” when the conflict ends, but energy experts caution that prices may remain elevated even after shipping routes reopen. Kevin Book, co‑founder of ClearView Energy Partners, told NPR that with low inventories and restricted flows through the strait, oil and gasoline prices are likely to keep rising until demand eases. He said the peak could take weeks or months to reach, depending on how long the strait is blocked, and added that it may also take months to move ships that are trapped, repair any damaged facilities and replenish inventories. Book warned that a rapid drop in prices would more likely reflect a recession that suppresses demand than a quick return to normal supply.
U.S. policy moves have aimed to blunt the spike: the Department of Energy released 17.5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between March 20 and April 24, according to the Energy Information Administration. Separately, seven OPEC+ countries announced they will raise output by a combined 188,000 barrels per day beginning in June as part of a stability commitment.
Higher pump prices are adding strain to household budgets, a pressure compounded by a weaker U.S. dollar. Morgan Stanley reports the dollar depreciated about 10% from early January 2025 through the end of April 2026, with the biggest losses in the first half of 2025. A softer dollar tends to make travel and imported goods more expensive for Americans while potentially boosting U.S. exporters.