LIMA — This Sunday’s presidential ballot presents a confusing picture for Peru’s roughly 27 million eligible voters: a record 35 candidates, a jumbo-sized ballot with photos and party symbols, and the messy legacy of near-annual political turnover. The sprawling field reflects deep instability and a public appetite for alternatives after a decade of turbulence.
Most names on the ballot are little known, polling at around one percent or less. Even established figures have struggled to break out, making a runoff between the top two contenders all but certain. With so many options dividing support, few candidates appear able to clear double digits in the first round.
Leading the pack, narrowly, is Keiko Fujimori. She leans on the popular elements of her father Alberto Fujimori’s record — defeating hyperinflation and weakening the Shining Path insurgency — while trying to distance herself from his corruption and human rights abuses. Keiko consistently polls near 10 percent, a level that seems both her floor and her ceiling. Many Peruvians blame her and her Popular Force party for years of political crisis; a recent survey found a majority saying they would never vote for her. If she reaches the runoff, it would be her fourth consecutive time doing so (2011, 2016 and 2021), though she could again be defeated in a second round.
A cluster of half a dozen candidates trails in the mid- to high-single digits and could still surge into the run-off. Among them is Rafael López Aliaga, an ultra-conservative former mayor of Lima often nicknamed “the Peruvian Trump,” who has already alleged imminent fraud and reportedly issued threats against the electoral agency’s leader. Other contenders include Carlos Álvarez, a Fujimori ally better known for political parody than policy, and Ricardo Belmont, an elderly left-leaning populist whose long career has included repeated sexist, homophobic and xenophobic remarks.
Polls show strong public demand for fresh faces unconnected to the current Congress, which suffers nearly 90 percent disapproval and has passed laws critics say benefit organized crime. Samuel Rotta of anti-corruption group Accion Civica summarizes the sentiment: pervasive high-level corruption and a tacit pact among political actors have fueled instability and allowed criminal networks to expand.
That frustration is rooted in stark realities: an extortion epidemic, a record homicide rate, and rising food insecurity. The World Food Programme estimates that food insecurity climbed from about 25 percent before the pandemic to roughly 51 percent today.
Voters on Sunday have an opportunity to change course. But with a crowded, fragmented field and many contenders unable to break double digits, the likely immediate outcome is another runoff — and with it, more months of political uncertainty as Peru confronts crime, corruption and deepening social distress.