A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds widespread economic anxiety as gas prices spike and gives Democrats a midterm advantage. The survey of 1,322 adults, conducted April 27–30, has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
Pain at the pump and blame
– 81% of Americans say current gas prices are straining their household budgets. This includes 79% of Republicans. AAA reported a national average of $4.48 per gallon as of May 5, compared with under $3 before the Iran conflict.
– By 63%–37%, respondents blame President Trump for the recent increase in gas prices. About one-third of Republicans also assign him blame.
Trump’s approval and coalition erosion
– Overall approval for Trump stands at 37% with 59% disapproval — the highest disapproval Marist has recorded across both terms. Strong disapproval is 51%, tied for his worst mark in this series.
– The poll shows notable declines in support across many groups that supported him previously, including Southern voters, households earning under $50,000, white men and women without college degrees, millennials, men, parents of children under 18, rural voters, and men in small cities and suburbs. Support has also slipped among white evangelical Christians and some Black and Latino voters.
– Republican support has softened: in February 2025, 88% of Republicans approved and 10% disapproved (a +78 net). In this poll, 81% approve and 18% disapprove (a +63 net), a 15-point net decline in a little over a year.
Economy and affordability
– Only 35% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, tied for his worst mark in the poll. Voters cite tariffs, sustained higher-than-pre-pandemic prices, and the recent gas spike after the Iran war as factors weighing on perceptions.
– A plurality says the economy is not working for them personally — the worst reading recorded in the series. Fifty-six percent say their area is not very affordable or not affordable at all.
– Groups reporting the economy is not working for them include: white non-college women (72%), households earning under $50,000 (71%), millennials (69%), and ages 18–29 (65%).
Foreign policy and Iran
– The Iran war and U.S. military action are broadly unpopular and hurt Trump’s foreign-policy numbers. Approval for his handling of Iran is 33%, down from 36% in March.
– By 61%–38%, the public says the military action in Iran has done more harm than good; that view is held by a quarter of Republicans as well. Sixty-two percent say Trump’s decisions have weakened the United States on the world stage.
AI and jobs
– Concern about artificial intelligence is growing: 80% think AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates, up 12 points from last year.
Midterm outlook and turnout enthusiasm
– On a congressional ballot test, Democrats lead 52%–42%, a 10-point advantage that in past cycles has signaled a potential wave, though fewer competitive seats exist because of gerrymandering and other factors.
– Democrats show higher turnout enthusiasm: 61% of Democrats say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote versus 53% of Republicans. There is a 14-point enthusiasm gap between people who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and those who voted for Trump (61% vs. 47%).
– Independents are less motivated: only 38% say they are very enthusiastic, suggesting lower midterm turnout compared with presidential years.
Most enthusiastic groups (very enthusiastic to vote): people 60+ (68%), white college men (68%), white college graduates (64%), white college women (61%), people 45+ (61%), college graduates overall (59%), whites (56%), white men without degrees (56%), those earning more than $50,000 (55%), and parents without children under 18 (55%).
Least enthusiastic groups: ages 18–29 (34%), Gen Z (35%), millennials (37%), those earning under $50,000 (37%), people under 45 (37%), Black voters (39%), parents with children under 18 (40%), Latinos (42%), white women without degrees (45%), Trump voters (47%), and urban residents (47%). Young and nonwhite voters are especially important for Democrats; parents with young children, white women without degrees, and Trump voters are critical for Republican turnout.
Other notable findings
– 74% support requiring government-issued photo ID to vote, including 51% of Democrats.
– 65% back requiring a passport or birth certificate to register to vote.
– 80% support a maximum age limit for members of Congress; 83% support term limits.
– A slim majority (53%) oppose automatic Selective Service registration for the military; 68% of Republicans favor automatic registration versus 30% of Democrats.
Bottom line
The poll highlights broad economic strain tied to rising fuel costs, growing public skepticism about the Iran conflict, weakening approval for Trump across many voter groups, and a clear Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot driven in part by higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters.