Overview
Iraqis vote on Tuesday to elect a new 329-member parliament. Observers say the level of turnout will be an important indicator of public faith in the political system and its ability to provide security and basic services after decades of conflict and instability.
Background
The 2003 US-led invasion that removed Saddam Hussein fractured Iraq’s social and political order and set off years of armed resistance and sectarian violence. Heavy Shia-Sunni fighting followed in 2006–2008, and hostilities with ISIL dominated 2013–2017. Since the first post-invasion elected government in 2005, many Iraqis have grown frustrated with successive administrations that have struggled to raise living standards and remain dominated by familiar, often militarised, political figures.
How the vote works
Voters will choose 329 members of parliament. At least 25 percent of seats (83) are reserved for women. Early voting for security personnel and roughly 26,000 displaced people took place ahead of the main day. Polling stations open at 07:00 local time (04:00 GMT) and close at 18:00 (15:00 GMT). Voting will be held across 18 of 19 provinces; the newly created Halabja governorate is included with Sulaimaniya for this ballot.
Who is running
Some 7,744 candidates are contesting seats, most aligned with sectarian parties and blocs operating under the informal muhasasa quota system established after 2003 to divide power among Iraq’s religious and ethnic communities. Under that arrangement, the speaker of parliament is expected to be a Sunni, the prime minister a Shia and the president a Kurd.
Major players
– Shia: A significant Shia bloc is led by former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. Current prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani heads a coalition seeking a second term but faces divisions within the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), the main Shia grouping formed in 2021 that backed his appointment in 2022.
– Sunni: The Taqaddum (Progress) Party, led by parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, is the principal Sunni force with strong support in Sunni-majority western and northern areas.
– Kurdish: The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) is seeking a larger share of oil revenues for the semi-autonomous region, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) competes for seats and influence and generally favours closer ties with Baghdad.
Boycott
Influential Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has urged his followers to boycott the election, denouncing the muhasasa system and calling for governments formed by blocs that win majorities rather than by quota arrangements. Sadr’s base is concentrated in central and southern Iraq; a widespread boycott by his supporters could weaken the next government’s legitimacy and its capacity to deliver services.
Turnout and participation
About 21.4 million people are registered to vote out of roughly 32 million eligible, down from around 24 million four years ago. Observers expect turnout to be lower than in previous elections and possibly below the 41 percent record low recorded in 2021. Low participation is widely attributed to youth disenchantment and the perception that the muhasasa system enables corruption and entrenched interests.
What is at stake
Al-Sudani is aiming to keep the premiership; his bloc could win the most seats but internal Shia rivalries may prevent him from securing the broader alliances needed to remain in office. A central issue is the role of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF/Hashd al-Shaabi), a powerful quasi-state paramilitary network that helped defeat ISIL in 2017 and has since become economically and politically embedded. Al-Sudani has pledged to integrate PMF units under state command, but many PMF factions have entered politics and could gain significant parliamentary representation and influence.
Nouri al-Maliki remains a prominent figure in the SCF and is reportedly seeking a third term as prime minister, despite criticism that his earlier administrations (2006–2014) deepened sectarian divisions that helped fuel ISIL’s rise. The election outcome will affect Iraq’s political balance, the government’s ability to govern and provide services, and the future role of armed groups and external actors in Iraqi affairs. Turnout will be watched closely as a barometer of public confidence.