Prosecutors Examine Santos Trades on His Own Attendance

Federal authorities are investigating former New York congressman George Santos over trades on the prediction market Kalshi that turned on information only he had: whether he would show up.

According to people with direct knowledge of the trades, Santos wagered on his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address and then posted public messages that moved the market odds, clearing tens of thousands of dollars.

The day before the speech in February, Santos posted a video saying he would be in the gallery. Odds on Kalshi shifted toward his attendance. He did not appear. During the address he posted that he was watching from an airport television, and the odds collapsed. Sources say he had already placed bets that he would not attend.

Kalshi detected the trades, froze his account and referred the matter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The commission and the Justice Department both opened investigations. Kalshi declined to comment; neither agency responded to requests for comment.

Asked about the inquiry, Santos said it was "news to me" and would not say whether he held an account: "I'm not saying yes, I'm not saying no." He said he planned to call Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara — whom he described as "a fellow Brazilian" he knows personally — to ask whether he was under review. A person familiar with the company's internal inquiry said Santos does not know her. Kalshi has sought to interview him; he has not cooperated.

A familiar name

Santos was elected to Congress in 2022 and then found to have fabricated much of his biography, including his education, family history and religious background. Federal prosecutors charged him in May 2023 with 13 counts including wire fraud, money laundering and stealing from political donors. He was sentenced to more than seven years and served roughly four months before the president commuted his sentence last October.

The case has become a marker in a wider argument about prediction markets, where lawmakers and regulators increasingly worry about insider trading and manipulation. Recent prosecutions include an Army Special Forces soldier accused of making more than $400,000 on bets about the capture of Nicolás Maduro, and a Google employee charged with using confidential company data to win over $1 million.

Traders noticed the swings at the time. On chat forums, users who lost money accused Santos of a "rug pull." His account remains frozen, though his name still draws volume: in late April nearly $90,000 was wagered on which words he would use during a television interview.